Each week, including this week’s 2019 Hero World Challenge, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2019 Hero World Challenge preview
The Hero World Challenge is an 18-man hit-and-giggle that offers world ranking points to everyone in the field. The winner get 46 points, which is insane for beating just 17 people. However, I digress. There’s fantasy to be played.
This is like a single-game contest for other sports in some sense. There aren’t many players, and the combinations are kind of obvious. However, in a tournament like this, the start is important. For these guys to care on the weekend, they’re going to need to be in the top half after the first two days. Guys with slow starts can either coast to the finish or backdoor a top five, but they’re not going to get the W in most cases.
2019 Hero World Challenge DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
In truth, most of these guys haven’t played much this fall, with the noted exceptions of Jon Rahm and Patrick Reed, playing on the European Tour.
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-6 finishes in this event in the last four years it was played.
- Rickie Fowler – 4
- Patrick Reed – 2
- Justin Rose – 3
- Jordan Spieth – 3
- Henrik Stenson – 3
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Unfortunately, we’re flying somewhat in the dark. The PGA Tour does not and will not offer Shotlink data for these tournaments outside of the United States.
2019 Hero World Challenge DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have three players in this group, and I think your best play is Jon Rahm. He’s been great since the PGA Tour season ended. JT has seen limited play, but he did win the CJ Cup on a course like this one, where being aggressive is a must.
We have four players in this group, and I like Webb Simpson and Tiger Woods here. Xander looked good in China and almost won the HSBC Champions. Rickie has been in the top six here every year at Albany.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. However, we just have two players in the $7,000s this week. I wouldn’t take Bryson or Justin. Bryson’s bulky new body may take some adjusting, and Justin isn’t the same guy from a couple of years ago. Rose, though, does have a good record here.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. There are a bunch. Patrick Reed has been playing OK. Gary Woodland has been playing very well. And don’t be afraid to take Chez just to get to your ideal lineup.
My Hero World Challenge DraftKings lineup
- Jon Rahm – $11,200
- Xander Schauffele – $9,800
- Webb Simpson – $8,800
- Patrick Reed – $6,900
- Gary Woodland – $6,700
- Chez Reavie – $6,000