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2019 WGC-HSBC Champions preview
The Asian Swing comes to an end this week with the final World Golf Championships event of the calendar year, the WGC-HSBC Champions in China. Sheshan International again hosts a bit of an odd field: super top heavy, with plenty of players just happy to be there at the bottom.
This week we want to lead with quality at the top and then take a few gambles on some European Tour players who have seen success this year.
2019 WGC-HSBC Champions DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Lucas Glover – 2 – T-14 Sanderson Farms, T-7 Shriners Open
- Scott Piercy – 2 – T-10 Shriners Open, T-5 CJ Cup
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-10 finishes in this event in the last five years it was played.
- Rafa Cabrera Bello – 2
- Paul Casey – 2
- Jason Day – 2
- Tony Finau – 2
- Matt Fitzpatrick – 2
- Sergio Garcia – 2
- Marc Leishman – 2
- Rory McIlroy – 2
- Patrick Reed – 2
- Justin Rose – 2
- Adam Scott – 2
- Henrik Stenson – 3
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Unfortunately, we’re flying somewhat in the dark in the next three events. The PGA Tour does not and will not offer Shotlink data for these tournaments. That means we can’t really dig in the weeds, especially without prior evidence.
2019 WGC-HSBC Champions DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I think your best plays are Rory, Hideki and Justin Rose. Rose may be overpriced given current form, but he likes this course.
We have 20 players in this group, and this is where we typically want to center our team. Adam Scott, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Pat Reed, Matt Fitzpatrick are guys I like. Rafa Cabrera Bello is a good value. Finau could be a great play, as would Im. I’m reluctant to like Wiesberger.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Charles Howell III, Ian Poulter, Erik van Rooyen, Robert Macintyre are my guys in this range. Louis Oosthuizen is always worth a look.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range who might finish in the top 10. Jason Kokrak fits the mold here. Mike Lorenzo Vera is playing great golf. Love Jazz, as always. Scott Hend is a good filler. Kurt Kitayama is playing very well and an excellent putter.
My WGC-HSBC Champions DraftKings lineup
- Justin Rose – $10,500
- Patrick Reed – $9,600
- Rafa Cabrera Bello – $8,500
- Louis Oosthuizen – $7,600
- Kurt Kitayama – $6,900
- Jason Kokrak – $6,700