Each week, including this week’s 2019 Wells Fargo Championship, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.
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[/s2If] [s2If is_user_logged_in()]2019 Wells Fargo Championship preview
After a week off with the Zurich Classic team event, we’re back on the solo horse with the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte. There’s a solid field here, with half the world top 50 in the event, leading with Justin Rose, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson.
Quail Hollow is now in its second year of hosting as a remade major championship host course, but it’s also again a deflated field compared to years past. Its place now in between majors in a more condensed schedule could hurt the event in the long haul.
2019 Wells Fargo Championship DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last six individual PGA Tour events.
- Sam Burns – 2 – T-12 Corales Puntacana, T-9 RBC Heritage
- Jason Day – 2 – T-8 The Players, T-5 The Masters
- Kevin Streelman – 2 – T-6 Valero Texas Open, T-6 RBC Heritage
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We look at the last five years to see which players finish in the top 15 multiple times in that stetch.
- Roberto Castro – 2
- Danny Lee – 2
- Rory McIlroy – 3
- Phil Mickelson – 4
- Patrick Reed – 2
- Justin Rose – 2
- Brendan Steele – 2
- Kevin Streelman – 2
Course Fits
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
We have a bit of an awkward job this week. We have to look back at the tournament history because Quail Hollow is fundamentally the same, but it’s a different course in some respects since the renovation pre-2017 PGA Championship. However, we’ll stick with the long-term vision.
Quail Hollow has the same T2G vs. Putting comparison as Harbour Town, but the OTT is much more important. And it makes sense being a longer course.
Here’s our breakdown:
Tee to Green: 66%
Off the Tee: 23%
Approach: 31%
Around the Green: 12%
Putting: 34%
Based on this breakdown, here are some potential fits:
- Nick Watney
- Rory Sabbatini
- Adam Hadwin
- Rickie Fowler
- JB Holmes
- Martin Laird
- JT Poston
- Phil Mickelson
2019 Wells Fargo Championship DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I think you can feel good about Rory, Rickie and Rose. Hideki is too expensive compared to those guys.
$8,000-$9,999
We have 17 players in this group, and this is where we want to anchor our team. Sergio is a good pick, as are Paul Casey, Tony Finau and Phil Mickelson. Jason Kokrak is on fire. Lucas Glover is a former winner. Sungjae Im is a future winner. CH3 is always sound.
$7,001-$7,999
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. JB Holmes likes this course, and Kevin Streelman does too and has been on a good run. Rory Sabbatini is the right mix. Roberto Castro almost won here and has been making plenty of cuts, like Joel Dahmen. JT Poston is a great fit. I like Wyndham Clark’s game, and Danny Lee could be a sneaky value. Sam Burns is on a little heater of late.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. Gotta like Martin Laird for course fit. Denny McCarthy is on a good run of late. Hudson Swafford should like Quail Hollow as a HFC. Jonathan Byrd plays here well and cashes checks in his scattered starts.
My primary DraftKings lineup
- Tony Finau – $9,300
- Jason Kokrak – $8,700
- Sungjae Im – $8,600
- Charles Howell III – $8,400
- Joel Dahmen – $7,600
- Denny McCarthy – $7,000
