Each week, including this week’s 2019 Puerto Rico Open, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()] [/s2If] [s2If is_user_logged_in()]
2019 Puerto Rico Open preview
The PGA Tour is in Los Angeles this week, at Riviera Country Club for the Puerto Rico Open. This is up there with the best fields of the year to this point, with Tiger Woods headlining as host. Most every top player is in the field (save for Brooks Koepka and Justin Rose), and Bubba Watson defends as he looks for a fourth title in Pacific Palisades.
We have to think of this course as a ballstriker’s haven. Putting on this course is difficult. It’s grainy and subtle. So getting lots of good opportunities to make putts is the best chance of scoring here.
2019 Puerto Rico Open DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We look at the last five years to see which players finish in the top 15 multiple times in that stetch.
- Scott Brown – 2
- Rafael Campos – 2
- Will MacKenzie – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
We don’t have strokes-gained data for opposite-field events, as ridiculous as that sounds in 2019. So we can’t do modeling for the Puerto Rico Open based on top-25 percentages. Besides, if you’re playing in this event every year, that’s probably not such a good thing.
2019 Puerto Rico Open DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and the right play here is to avoid all of them. They’re budget-busting players, and we need to hang in a pretty tight range to get six quality-enough players that we think will make the cut and maybe win.
We have 18 players in this group, and this is where we want to acquire at least half our team. Baddeley, Ryan Blaum, Matt Every and Jonathan Byrd are solid picks. Dominic Bozzelli is intriguing, if overpriced at $8,500. Roberto Castro is cashing checks, and we like that.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Charl Schwartzel added this tournament to get out of a funk and stay in the world top 100. I respect that, but he’s no guarantee to get to the weekend. Rafael Campos at $7,700 is a must-pick. Robert Streb is a horse-for-course pick. Sam Horsfield is an up-and-coming Euro Tour regular. Adam Svensson has showed some real promise. Wyndham Clark at $7,300 is absurdly low. Get him. Cameron Tringale at $7,100 is not a bad price either.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range, and you’re going to be hard-pressed to find them. This field is not deep at all. Hank Lebioda, maybe.
My primary DraftKings lineup
- Ryan Blaum – $9,200
- Matt Every – $9,000
- Jonathan Byrd- $8,800
- Roberto Castro – $8,000
- Rafael Campos – $7,700
- Wynham Clark – $7,300