Each week, including this week’s 2018 Genesis Open, daily fantasy (DFS) golf players check the DraftKings lobby to see that week’s PGA Tour games, scrutinize the pricing model and try to predict lineups which will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.
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2018 Genesis Open preview
The PGA Tour is in the Los Angeles area for one of the best tournaments of the year, the Genesis Open. Tiger Woods is de facto host as the likes of Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas take on storied Riviera Country Club and Hogan’s Alley.
This is a course that is very forgiving to the wayward driver, despite what you might think about the treelines and the kikuyagrass. This golf course requires a lot of shotmaking and fearlessness to try shots that might make others uncomfortable. Short game is absolutely key here as well, but it is primarily a second-shot course.
2018 Genesis Open DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Brandon Harkins – 3 – T-8 CareerBuilder Challenge, T-12 Farmers Insurance Open, T-15 AT&T Pebble Beach
- Brian Gay – 2 – T-9 Phoenix Open, T-8 AT&T Pebble Beach
- Chez Reavie – 2 – P-2 Phoenix Open, T-2 AT&T Pebble Beach
- Daniel Berger – 2 – T-11 Sony Open, T-14 Phoenix Open
- Harris English – 2 – T-11 CareerBuilder Challenge, T-8 Farmers Insurance Open
- James Hahn – 2 – P-2 Sony Open, T-11 Phoenix Open
- Kevin Chappell – 2 – T-6 CareerBuilder Challenge, T-8 AT&T Pebble Beach
- Ollie Schniederjans – 2 – T-7 Sony Open, T-3 Phoenix Open
- Phil Mickelson – 2 – T-5 Phoenix Open, T-2 AT&T Pebble Beach
- Tom Hoge – 2 – T-3 Sony Open, T-12 Farmers Insurance Open
Event Finish History
Here are the players who finished in the top 15 at this event multiple times in the last five years:
- Adam Scott – 2
- Bill Haas – 2
- Brendan Steele – 2
- Bubba Watson – 2
- Cameron Tringale – 2
- Charl Schwartzel – 2
- Charley Hoffman – 2
- Charlie Beljan – 2
- Dustin Johnson – 3
- Jim Furyk – 2
- Jordan Spieth – 2
- Sang-moon Bae – 3
- Sergio Garcia – 2
- William McGirt – 2
DraftKings salaries change from week to week, depending on field strength and size, as well a player’s recent record and their history on a course. It’s in looking at how a salary changes over time that we might get some clues as to players that could be a little overrated or underrated.
Here’s the list of players in the field playing at least $500 over their 2017-18 average salary (ranked least to most over average salary):
- Branden Grace
- Daniel Berger
- Dustin Johnson
- Tommy Fleetwood
Here are the players playing this week with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five PGA Tour events that are playing AT OR BELOW their 2017-18 average salary:
- Brandon Harkins
- Chez Reavie
- Harris English
- James Hahn
- Kevin Chappell
- Ollie Schniederjans
- Tom Hoge
2018 Genesis Open DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and they’re all great picks for one reason or another. You should pick Dustin Johnson, though. He’s the boss here. Next best pick would be Paul Casey, who has been playing great for 18 months now and does well here on the usual. Still not sold on Spieth’s putting, and he has some demons here.
We have 13 players in this group, and it seems the plays begin with Phil Mickelson, who has a fantastic record here and just posted consecutive top-five finishes for the first time in five-plus years. Daniel Berger’s an interesting play as well, given current form and that he favors the most forgiving courses for his best finishes. Chez Reavie is getting no love at $8,000, but he should.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark.
Brendan Steele is, well, a steal at $7,900. Kevin Chappell is coming along and playing in his college hometown of sorts (UCLA).
Sneaky pick: Sang-moon Bae at $7,200. I like what I’m seeing from him, and his record here the last five years is second best to DJ in terms of top-15 finishes.
We’re looking for bargains in this range with a threat to top-10.
Brandon Harkins continues to get no respect for his good play at $6,800. Cameron Tringale could be an interesting gamble, but he’s basically making half his cuts, so that could weigh down his good Riviera record.[/s2If]