Jay’s Plays NFL picks: Week 11 predictions and bettor’s guide
Jay's Plays

Jay’s Plays NFL picks: Week 11 predictions and bettor’s guide


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Lightning struck twice in the same place this weekend as the Patriots lost their end of a parley and the Browns finally won. That, of course, was nothing compared to Bears kicker Cody Parkey’s day: He hit the upright four times in one game!

“I don’t think I’ve hit the post four times in my whole life, and I’ve been kicking for about 15 years, so it’s almost comical,” he said.



Parkey has a 4-year, $9 million deal with the Bears. You won’t make that much money for doing that little, but you can crush your man this week with Ernesto’s predictions. We went 5-3 last week, 2-2 in teasers. That makes the season totals a strong 29-11 overall, 13-7 in teasers. We won with the Chiefs (3-0 this season for us), Saints (2-0), Bears (2-0) Packers and an OVER. For the first time this season we lost a parley bet playing the Patriots and betting against the Browns.

As always, we do two-team teasers here, so we can move the line six points either way. We use the lines from Vegasinsider.com, HOME TEAM IN CAPS.

HOME COOKIN’!

BEARS (+3) vs. Vikings
SAINTS (-1.5) vs. Eagles


Despite Purkey’s abysmal day, the Bears really don’t need him all that much. They’ve been quite solid in all facets, most importantly defense. Kirk Cousins still has that aura of mediocrity about him that doesn’t foster a lot of confidence on the road.

The Saints are the the best team in the NFL right now. The Eagles need more consistency down the stretch if they are to leapfrog several others on their way to a playoff spot.

AFC FEAST!

JAGUARS-Steelers OVER 40.5
Chiefs (+8.5) vs. RAMS

The Jags give the Steelers fits; they are one of only a fistful of teams that have a winning record against Pittsburgh, and they thrashed them for 49 points in the AFC Divisional playoffs last year. Without Artie Burns starting, the Steelers are 7 points better on defense, but when the offense explodes like it did last week, that does not switch them to an UNDER team. Either of these teams might cover that number themselves. The biggest difference between the Rams and Chiefs? The Rams are far more undisciplined and take more stupid penalties. They can get away with it against some teams, but not an almost flawless KC.

LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH? (OKAY...PERHAPS TOUCH LIGHTLY)

CHARGERS (-1) vs. Broncos
CHARGERS-Broncos UNDER 53

Case Keenum doesn’t scare anyone. Phillip Rivers is having a fantastic year. Maybe the switch to Los Angeles was what that franchise needed.

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About the author

Jay Flemma

Jay Flemma

Starting with a blog and a dream, Jay Flemma launched his first sports-writing website in 2004. Some 13 years and 25 major golf championships later, Jay has won multiple national sports writing awards. Besides GNN, his work has appeared in numerous books as well as on-line at Cybergolf, PGA.com, GolfObserver, GolfChannel.com and many other sites and print magazines. When not trying to find a lost golf ball, Jay is an entertainment, copyright, Internet, sports and trademark lawyer in Manhattan. His clients have been nominated for Grammy and Emmy awards, won a Sundance Film Festival Best Director award, performed on stage and screen, and designed pop art for museums and collectors. Jay lives in Forest Hills, N.Y., and is fiercely loyal to his alma maters, Deerfield Academy in Massachusetts and Trinity College in Connecticut.