The Masters is the most popular golf tournament in the world. It's the first golf major championship of the year, and it's the only men's major played on the same course every single year.
It's also the easiest major tournament to predict the winner.
We have 89 previous Masters Tournaments to use as our guide to help identify the champion who will get the green jacket at Augusta National Golf Club. That history, particularly in the last 65 years, gives us clear rules and guidelines to narrow down who will win in 2026.
Here are the rules you'll need to consider when picking a Masters champion (and stay to the end to know the only rule that really matters).
No amateur has ever won the Masters
This one is pretty simple. The Masters has a rich history of inviting amateur players to compete in the tournament. After all, club co-founder Bobby Jones is considered the greatest amateur golfer of all time (though Tiger Woods could make a claim about that). Nevertheless, an amateur has never won the Masters. Ken Venturi got the closest of any player in 1956. Venturi led after each of the first three rounds, four shots ahead of Dr. Cary Middlecoff. However, Venturi, who was paired with Sam Snead on the final day, closed with 80. Jack Burke Jr., who began the day eight shots behind Venturi, shot 1-under 71 to win by a single shot to complete the biggest final-round comeback in Masters history.
Only 3 players have ever successfully defended the Masters title
Going back-to-back at Augusta National is almost unheard of in Masters Tournament history. Just three players have ever managed to repeat as Masters champion: Jack Nicklaus (1965 and 1966), Nick Faldo (1989 and 1990) and Tiger Woods (2001 and 2002). Rory McIlroy would be in rare company -- he already is as a career Grand Slam winner -- to repeat in 2026.
No first-time Masters contestant has won since 1979
Masters champions typically have plenty of experience at Augusta National before they win, with the average Masters winner taking between 6 and 7 appearances to get the green jacket. Just three players have ever won the Masters on their first attempt. Horton Smith won the first Masters, then known as the Augusta National Invitation Tournament, in 1934. Gene Sarazen also won in his first appearance in 1935, thanks in part to the "shot heard around the world" when he holed a 235-yard second shot for an albatross on the par-5 15th and then won a 36-hole playoff against Craig Wood. The last to do it? Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
No one older than 46 has won the Masters
While Masters champions are invited back for their lifetime of relevant golf, the oldest Masters champion is Jack Nicklaus in 1986 at the age of 46. The likes of Freddy Couples have turned back the clock over the years at Augusta National, but they've never been able to do it for all 72 holes and win past the Golden Bear's mark.
Players who have been great this year are the most likely winners
Turns out, current-year form has been the best indicator of a modern Masters champion. In 19 of the last 21 Masters played, the Masters champion averaged at least 1.5 strokes gained per round in the tournaments of the calendar year leading into the Masters. The only two exceptions were Patrick Reed in 2018 and Hideki Matsuyama in 2021, with Matsuyama coming close to reaching that threshold. There are just 12 players who meet that criteria going into the 2026 Masters.
