Looking for 2017 Tour Championship picks, either for betting or fantasy golf games like DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, Golf Channel or the PGA Tour?
We have your 2017 Tour Championship rankings and expert picks, as we do each week of the PGA Tour season.
The playoffs end here! We’re down from 125 to the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings, all with a mathematical chance of winning the season-long race and its $10 million FedEx Cup prize. East Lake is a great closing test, demanding a lot of players in search of the season-ending tournament.
For those new to our weekly picks, we offer our top 10 players for free. GNN Plus members get additional analysis and research otherwise hidden to the general public, and that’s in addition to access to a searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present, top-15 PGA Tour trends and season-long DraftKings salary trends.
2017 Tour Championship rankings: Top 10 picks
1. Jordan Spieth – Spieth has done it here before, and he’s played the best through the playoffs. He has the No. 1 seed, so he has the edge on the FedEx Cup, too.
2. Jon Rahm – Rahm has been the second-best player in the playoffs through all three events so far. Debuting at East Lake, but that’s not a real concern.
3. Dustin Johnson – Johnson was not at his best for the first three rounds at Conway Farms. A throwaway 64 could be a nice way to ease into East Lake, which is a much different animal.
4. Justin Rose – Rose has looked great throughout the playoffs, and he has four top-six finishes at East Lake in the last six years.
5. Paul Casey – Casey’s top-five streak in the playoffs has come to an end, but the Englishman has been great in the post-season.
6. Jason Day – Day is on the come, and his East Lake record is in no way deflating. He could salvage a season with a win and maybe a FedEx Cup title.
7. Brooks Koepka – Flying under the radar, Koepka has been in the top 18 in four of his last five starts. Solid, not great. Sneaky.
8. Patrick Cantlay – A great playoff run concludes for Cantlay at East Lake. House money here for him, but he doesn’t think that way, and that makes him a threat.
9. Rickie Fowler – Fowler doesn’t have a constructive East Lake record, and that makes ranking him highly difficult.
10. Jason Dufner – The Dufdaddy is the last man in the field, and that’s OK. He won’t win the $10 million but his decent East Lake record makes him worth a fantasy look.
My DraftKings lineup for this week:
- Jordan Spieth – $11,600
- Justin Rose – $8,900
- Patrick Cantlay – $7,800
- Matt Kuchar – $7,700
- Kevin Chappell – $7,600
- Brian Harman – $6,300
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GNN Plus Research and Analysis
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Brooks Koepka – 2 – T-13 PGA Championship, T-12 BMW Championship
- Dustin Johnson – 2 – T-13 PGA Championship, WIN The Northern Trust
- Jason Day – 3 – T-9 PGA Championship, T-6 The Northern Trust, 4th BMW Championship
- Jon Rahm – 3 – 3rd The Northern Trust, T-4 Dell Tech Championship, T-5 BMW Championship
- Jordan Spieth – 2 – P-2 The Northern Trust, 2nd Dell Tech Championship
- Justin Rose – 3 – T-10 The Northern Trust, T-10 Dell Tech Championship, T-2 BMW Championship
- Justin Thomas – 3 – WIN PGA Championship, T-6 The Northern Trust, WIN Dell Tech Championship
- Kevin Chappell – 2 – T-6 The Northern Trust, T-12 BMW Championship
- Marc Leishman – 3 – T-13 PGA Championship, 3rd Dell Tech Championship, WIN BMW Championship
- Matt Kuchar – 3 – T-9 PGA Championship, T-10 The Northern Trust, T-5 BMW Championship
- Patrick Cantlay – 3 – T-10 The Northern Trust, T-13 Dell Tech Championship, T-9 BMW Championship
- Patrick Reed – 2 – T-2 PGA Championship, T-6 Dell Tech Championship
- Paul Casey – 3 – T-13 PGA Championship, 5th The Northern Trust, T-4 Dell Tech Championship
- Rickie Fowler – 3 – T-5 PGA Championship, T-13 Dell Tech Championship, T-2 BMW Championship
- Webb Simpson – 3 – 3rd Wyndham Championship, T-6 The Northern Trust, T-9 BMW Championship
Event Finish History
Here are the players who finished in the top 10 at this event multiple times in the last five years:
- Dustin Johnson – 4
- Gary Woodland – 2
- Jason Day – 3
- Jason Dufner – 2
- Jordan Spieth – 2
- Justin Rose – 4
- Matt Kuchar – 2
- Paul Casey – 2
- Sergio Garcia – 2
- Webb Simpson – 2
DraftKings salaries change from week to week, depending on field strength and size, as well a player’s recent record and their history on a course. It’s in looking at how a salary changes over time that we might get some clues as to players that could be a little overrated or underrated.
Here’s the list of players in the field playing over their 2016-17 average salary (ranked least to most over average salary):
- Xander Schauffele
- Patrick Cantlay
- Justin Thomas
- Marc Leishman
- Rickie Fowler
Here are the players playing this week with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five PGA Tour events that are playing AT OR BELOW their average salary from the 2016-17 season:
- Brooks Koepka
- Dustin Johnsont
- Jason Day
- Jon Rahm
- Jordan Spieth
- Justin Rose
- Kevin Chappell
- Matt Kuchar
- Patrick Reed
- Paul Casey
- Webb Simpson
Success at East Lake
East Lake is a Donald Ross design that is just plain tough. Flipping the nines for the 2016 edition of the event was the right play, and the course’s demanding par 3s really come through better with this setup. The par 5s are also demanding in terms of length. It’s a fantastic test to end the PGA Tour season because it requires a champion to do everything well or face the consequences.