Looking for 2017 The Northern Trust picks, either for betting or fantasy golf games like DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, Golf Channel or the PGA Tour?
We have your 2017 The Northern Trust rankings and expert picks, as we do each week of the PGA Tour season.
The playoffs are here! Get excited! Seriously! We still have four really good golf tournaments this season, and they kick off this week in New York with The Northern Trust (nee The Barclays). The tournament is at Glen Oaks Club, a first-time host in this metro New York/New Jersey market, and it should be a dandy with the top 125 players eligible and 120 players competing.
For those new to our weekly picks, we offer our top 10 players for free. GNN Plus members get additional analysis and research otherwise hidden to the general public, and that’s in addition to access to a searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present, top-15 PGA Tour trends and season-long DraftKings salary trends.
2017 The Northern Trust rankings: Top 10 picks
1. Brooks Kopeka – Glen Oaks is long and tough, so we’re going to need a good driver of the ball and a good ballstriker. Brooks will do.
2. Hideki Matsuyama – Matsuyama isn’t as long as Koepka, but he’s a better iron player. Perhaps 1 and 1a this week.
3. Justin Thomas – J.T. has to be riding high from that PGA Championship win which pretty much locked up PGA Tour Player of the Year honors barring some kind of Spieth miracle.
4. Jordan Spieth – Could this be 2015 all over again? Maybe. Spieth wasn’t great at the PGA, and he seemed exhausted from winning the British Open. Maybe a week off helped him.
5. Rickie Fowler – Fowler has been spectacular throughout the year. He’s just not finishing off tournaments. From a fantasy perspective, however, he’s been a great pick most every time out with beautiful driving.
6. Dustin Johnson – Johnson is clearly not on the upswing right now, but he’s not on the downswing either. He’s holding on to his level, looking for a time to break out.
7. Rory McIlroy – Under normal circumstances, I would put McIlroy ahead of Johnson because of his driving advantage in terms of accuracy. However, the rib and back are both concerns.
8. Henrik Stenson – The Iceman is back in the winner’s circle after a fantastic performance at Sedgefield in Greensboro. Stenson runs hot (and cold, har har) so certainly worth a look here.
9. Louis Oosthuizen – I’m feeling King Louis right now. T-2 at the PGA Championship was certainly nice, but he’s been really strong throughout the year. Just one missed cut.
10. Jason Day – I saw something I liked about Jason Day at the PGA (and it wasn’t that 8). He’s showed signs of coming around, just needs a good week to do it for four days.
My DraftKings lineup for this week:
- Justin Thomas – $9,400
- Brooks Koepka – $9,100
- Louis Oosthuizen – $8,800
- Jason Dufner – $7,600
- Francesco Molinari – $7,600
- Tony Finau – $7,300
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GNN Plus Research and Analysis
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events (non-Stableford).
- UPDATE 3:30 PM ET TUESDAY
Event Finish History
Here are the players who finished in the top 15 at this event multiple times in the last five years, even though Glen Oaks is a new venue:
- Bubba Watson – 3
- Dustin Johnson – 3
- Gary Woodland – 4
- Graham DeLaet – 2
- Jason Day – 4
- Jason Kokrak – 2
- Justin Rose – 2
- Matt Kuchar – 2
- Nick Watney – 3
- Patrick Reed – 2
- Phil Mickelson – 2
- Rickie Fowler – 3
- Webb Simpson – 2
- William McGirt – 2
DraftKings salaries change from week to week, depending on field strength and size, as well a player’s recent record and their history on a course. It’s in looking at how a salary changes over time that we might get some clues as to players that could be a little overrated or underrated.
Here’s the list of players in the field playing $1,500 over their 2016-17 average salary (ranked least to most over average salary):
- Marc Leishman
- Richy Werenski
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Camilo Villegas
- Martin Flores
- Robert Garrigus
- Ollie Schniederjans
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Rickie Fowler
Here are the players playing this week with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five PGA Tour events that are playing BELOW their average salary from the 2016-17 season:
- UPDATE 3:30 PM ET TUESDAY
Success at Glen Oaks Club
Glen Oaks is new to this event, and it jumped in after a renovation of the Joe Finger design by Joel Weiman. This is a golf course with very well-defined features. The rough is here. The first cut is here. The fairway is here. The bunker is here. There’s no grey area. That’s going to mean exacting golf that’s going to play a lot like we saw at Quail Hollow for the PGA Championship. Length is a key, so is accuracy. Tee-to-green play dominates.