With just hours to go before the start of this week's golf events, the 2021 Valspar Championship on the PGA Tour and the 2021 Tenerife Open on the European Tour, I'm sharing my betting card for the week for Forebucks subscribers.
In the past, I've posted my weekly golf betting picks right underneath the odds for particular tournaments. However, I'm now changing things up and putting all of my picks and bets into a single post. That way, it's easier for you to see my full card and, frankly, for me to track myself, including any additions I make through the week in-play.
Before I get into my betting picks for this week, I should disclose my bet sizing and strategy. At this point, for me, 1 unit is $50. Depending on the week, I like to flat bet several golfers to outright, then I'll take partial-unit bets on longer-shot outrights. On matchups, top-10 and top-20 bets, I'm betting a single unit on each one. I want to use those shorter-odds bets to ideally lock in a modest profit for the week and then hopefully hit an outright. I do not like to bet first-round leaders, as I feel that market is too hard to predict.
2021 Valspar Championship betting card
Outright bets to win
- Corey Conners (+2000): Would love Conners at a higher number, but he's playing too hot for that.
- Jason Kokrak (+4000): Had to shop around to find Krak at this number, but he's a horse-for-course and will do great so long as he keeps it in play
- Chris Kirk (+5000): Kirk's redemption arc continues, and he's playing brilliant golf.
- Charl Schwartzel (+10000): Threw a little coin on Charl because he's won here in the past and there's hope last week jolted him.
- Richy Werenski and Peter Uihlein (+550): Uihlein has been crushing it on the Korn Ferry. He might pick up Werenski, who has played well in spots but missed his last three cuts. This is a total flier bet.
2021 Tenerife Open betting card
Outright bets to win
- John Catlin (+4000): Catlin still gets no respect despite winning three times in 14 starts. Did well enough last week.
- Thorbjorn Olesen (+3000): Olesen seems back, and that could mean a quick turnaround back into the winner's circle.
- Alejandro Canizares (+12500): Played so well for three rounds in Austria that I feel good enough about him in Spain.