With just hours to go before the start of this week’s golf events, the 2021 Valero Texas Open on the PGA Tour and the 2021 ANA Inspiration on the LPGA Tour, I’m sharing my betting card for the week for Forebucks subscribers.
In the past, I’ve posted my weekly golf betting picks right underneath the odds for particular tournaments. However, I’m now changing things up and putting all of my picks and bets into a single post. That way, it’s easier for you to see my full card and, frankly, for me to track myself, including any additions I make through the week in-play.
Before I get into my betting picks for this week, I should disclose my bet sizing and strategy. At this point, for me, 1 unit is $50. Depending on the week, I like to flat bet several golfers to outright, then I’ll take partial-unit bets on longer-shot outrights. On matchups, top-10 and top-20 bets, I’m betting a single unit on each one. I want to use those shorter-odds bets to ideally lock in a modest profit for the week and then hopefully hit an outright. I do not like to bet first-round leaders, as I feel that market is too hard to predict.
2021 Valero Texas Open betting card
Outright bets to win
- Ryan Palmer (+2800): Palmer has been playing some of the best golf of his life, seems to like Texas golf, and he’s been a horse-for-course here that’s not Charley Hoffman.
- Chris Kirk (+4000): Kirk has been playing well, has the freedom of maintaining his card, likes this event and has nothing to play for except a Masters spot.
- Sam Burns (+4000): I’ve been high on Burns since he made his debut out of LSU, but he now seems to be getting close to that first win.
- Branden Grace (+6600): Grace won in Puerto Rico, and he’s playing inspired golf. He was trending to that win, and he could do it again here in tough conditions.
- Matthew NeSmith (+12500): NeSmith handled the wind pretty well in the past, and he did well to finish T-36 at the Honda Classic. Like him as a potential long-shot play.
- Corey Conners (-110) over Abraham Ancer: Both golfers have been playing well, but Conners is defending champion and one of the most consistent ballstrikers in golf.
- Ryan Palmer (-115) over Charley Hoffman: I love Palmer to win, so I have to like him over a guy I think is a little overplayed this week despite his otherwise great history here.
- Brendan Steele (+330): Steele is such an animal in certain events, and this is one of them. Coming off a T-3 at Honda.
- Kevin Chappell (+400): Chappell is an erratic player, so he’s hard to like for a top 10, but he seems to like this course and is coming off a T-13 at Honda.
2021 ANA Inspiration betting card
Outright bets to win
- Jin Young Ko (+900): Was the 2019 winner, and she won the season-ending CME Group Tour Championship pretty handily. Looked good at the Kia Classic last week.
- Charley Hull (+4000): I love Hull in this event, and she’s a good longer shot considering how top-heavy winners are usually on the LPGA.
- Jennifer Kupcho (+6600): Kupcho is a top-20 player in the world who is figuring out how to consistently place. She could shock the world here. She’s still a little erratic.
- Amy Olson (+350): Olson has been great going back into the end of last year and that close call in the US Women’s Open. She can do that on this golf course.