2020 Workday Charity Open model and fantasy golf rankings
Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting Forebucks PGA Tour

2020 Workday Charity Open model and fantasy golf rankings



For years, I’ve made fantasy golf picks, power rankings and given betting tips about PGA Tour events.

I’ve looked at two main factors, current form and course history, and tried to bring those together to offer selections and my best guess as to who will contend in a given week.

However, for 2020, I wanted to become more sophisticated and develop a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. After some weeks of testing, I’m have this rubric where I want it. Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
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How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2020 Workday Charity Classic rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 50 in this field, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This week, the ranking again feels pretty apparent. We know who to like at this point. However, trying to handicap a different setup at Muirfield Village is interesting. It should be easier and slower this week, particularly compared to next week.

I love Maverick McNealy and Max Homa this week as sleepers. Bud Cauley is a great sleeper as well.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 Cantlay, Patrick 2.015 10600 3 1300 2
2 Thomas, Justin 1.548 11100 1 1000 1
3 Rose, Justin 1.44 9700 7 1900 6
4 Rahm, Jon 1.345 10900 2 1500 3
5 Matsuyama, Hideki 1.223 10000 6 1500 3
6 Schauffele, Xander 1.181 10200 5 1900 6
7 Woodland, Gary 1.173 8300 17 4400 18
8 Koepka, Brooks 1.129 10400 4 1500 3
9 Fowler, Rickie 1.088 9000 10 2900 10
10 Reed, Patrick 0.99 8800 12 3500 11
11 Morikawa, Collin 0.945 9200 9 2600 9
12 Hovland, Viktor 0.933 9500 8 1900 6
13 Im, Sungjae 0.797 8900 11 3700 12
14 McNealy, Maverick 0.786 7500 33 6900 28
15 Homa, Max 0.724 7100 52 10300 44
16 NeSmith, Matthew 0.713 6800 72 20900 84
17 Fitzpatrick, Matthew 0.694 8000 20 4600 19
18 Niemann, Joaquin 0.693 8400 16 3700 12
19 Kuchar, Matt 0.689 8500 15 3700 12
20 Streelman, Kevin 0.687 7800 24 6300 22
21 Poulter, Ian 0.677 7500 33 9400 39
22 Dahmen, Joel 0.632 7700 27 7300 31
23 Horschel, Billy 0.623 7500 33 6800 24
24 Snedeker, Brandt 0.619 7600 30 9400 39
25 Cauley, Bud 0.613 7100 52 10400 46
26 Hadwin, Adam 0.611 8200 18 4200 16
27 Wallace, Matt 0.605 7200 47 8300 33
28 Varner III, Harold 0.57 7500 33 9000 38
29 Spieth, Jordan 0.555 8600 14 4200 16
30 Sabbatini, Rory 0.553 7400 37 10400 46
31 Scheffler, Scottie 0.517 7800 24 7200 30
32 Watson, Bubba 0.517 8000 20 6800 24
33 Lowry, Shane 0.503 7400 37 8400 35
34 Leishman, Marc 0.5 8700 13 4100 15
35 Taylor, Nick 0.478 6900 65 15600 69
36 Henley, Russell 0.477 7300 42 9400 39
37 Day, Jason 0.446 7700 27 6800 24
38 Hubbard, Mark 0.427 7400 37 12900 55
39 Grillo, Emiliano 0.42 7200 47 12300 53
40 Furyk, Jim 0.401 6900 65 12900 55
41 Conners, Corey 0.395 7600 30 6900 28
42 Wolff, Matthew 0.388 8100 19 4900 20
43 Merritt, Troy 0.354 7000 58 12100 52
44 Stuard, Brian 0.337 7100 52 10400 46
45 Kokrak, Jason 0.3 7600 30 9400 39
46 Rodgers, Patrick 0.271 7300 42 12900 55
47 Vegas, Jhonattan 0.254 7200 47 15600 69
48 Murray, Grayson 0.245 6800 72 12900 55
49 Holmes, J.B. 0.231 6800 72 10300 44
50 Griffin, Lanto 0.229 7400 37 12900 55
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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