2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic model and fantasy golf rankings
Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting Forebucks PGA Tour

2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic model and fantasy golf rankings



For years, I’ve made fantasy golf picks, power rankings and given betting tips about PGA Tour events.

I’ve looked at two main factors, current form and course history, and tried to bring those together to offer selections and my best guess as to who will contend in a given week.

However, for 2020, I wanted to become more sophisticated and develop a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. After some weeks of testing, I’m have this rubric where I want it. Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
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How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 50 in this field, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This week, the ranking again feels pretty apparent. We know who to like at this point. I do find Tony Finau and Mav McNealy being so high interesting. Sneds being high up on a Ross course makes sense.

I think Peter Uihlein could be a big sleeper this week.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 Simpson, Webb 1.68 11000 2 1200 2
2 DeChambeau, Bryson 1.667 11700 1 600 1
3 Matsuyama, Hideki 1.046 10200 5 1800 5
4 Reed, Patrick 1.025 10500 4 1600 3
5 Hatton, Tyrrell 0.997 10700 3 1600 3
6 Finau, Tony 0.972 9300 9 2500 8
7 Bezuidenhout, Christiaan 0.953 8300 18 6000 19
8 Fowler, Rickie 0.893 9500 8 3000 9
9 Na, Kevin 0.879 9100 11 4000 10
10 Im, Sungjae 0.862 9800 7 2000 6
11 Hovland, Viktor 0.847 10000 6 2000 6
12 McNealy, Maverick 0.728 7600 29 8000 26
13 van Rooyen, Erik 0.705 8000 22 8000 26
14 Grace, Branden 0.664 7300 35 10000 32
15 Snedeker, Brandt 0.638 7900 23 4000 10
16 Sabbatini, Rory 0.63 8800 13 5000 15
17 Scheffler, Scottie 0.626 9000 12 4000 10
18 Glover, Lucas 0.591 8400 17 6000 19
19 Hadwin, Adam 0.573 8200 19 6000 19
20 Uihlein, Peter 0.547 7000 45 15000 50
21 Varner III, Harold 0.516 7600 29 6000 19
22 Wallace, Matt 0.498 6700 60 15000 50
23 Watson, Bubba 0.484 9200 10 5000 15
24 Poston, J.T. 0.43 8700 14 4000 10
25 Day, Jason 0.41 8600 15 5000 15
26 Hubbard, Mark 0.364 7200 38 12500 42
27 Higgs, Harry 0.355 6800 54 15000 50
28 Wagner, Johnson 0.354 6100 118 50000 120
29 Lewis, Tom 0.316 6800 54 20000 69
30 Harman, Brian 0.307 7900 23 6000 19
31 Munoz, Sebastian 0.296 6400 85 30000 90
32 Seiffert, Chase 0.287 6200 105 25000 80
33 Stuard, Brian 0.258 7400 33 10000 32
34 Gomez, Fabian 0.251 7100 41 15000 50
35 Rodgers, Patrick 0.241 7400 33 10000 32
36 Willett, Danny 0.231 6600 67 15000 50
37 Redman, Doc 0.228 8500 16 4000 10
38 Ventura, Kristoffer 0.205 6400 85 25000 80
39 Wise, Aaron 0.202 6700 60 15000 50
40 Phillips, Chandler 0.199 6300 94 50000 120
41 Sucher, Zack 0.196 6200 105 40000 110
42 Merritt, Troy 0.184 6400 85 25000 80
43 Griffin, Lanto 0.178 7700 27 8000 26
44 Hoge, Tom 0.172 7000 45 12500 42
45 Bradley, Keegan 0.162 7300 35 12500 42
46 Burns, Sam 0.162 6900 49 15000 50
47 Percy, Cameron 0.156 6500 75 30000 90
48 Werenski, Richy 0.156 6500 75 20000 69
49 Wolff, Matthew 0.155 6800 54 10000 32
50 Tringale, Cameron 0.152 6600 67 20000 69
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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