Each week, including this week’s 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic preview
This week is going to be an interesting one on the PGA Tour. With the specter of positive COVID-19 tests, there may be a different feel this week in Detroit.
It will also feel like a bit of a crapshoot this week. With half the number of top-50 players as last week, there will be more of a lottery feel. Also, this Ross course will offer some true advantages to long hitters for the first time in the restart.
2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Bryson DeChambeau – 4 – 4th Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-3 Colonial, T-8 RBC Heritage, T-6 Travelers Championship
- Tyrrell Hatton – 2 – WIN Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-3 RBC Heritage
- Sungjae Im – 3 – WIN The Honda Classic, 3rd Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-10 Colonial
- J.T. Poston – 2 – T-10 Colonial, T-8 RBC Heritage
- Patrick Reed – 2 – T-15 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-7 Colonial
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-15 finishes in this event in the last five years it was played.
However, this event doesn’t have multiple years.
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Without multiple years of play, we won’t rely on this metric this week. We’ll look hardest at our model.
2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and I think you can look at Bryson, Webb and Hatton. Hovland feels too expensive.
We have 16 players in this group, and this is where you really make your team. Finau makes good sense, as does Kevin Na. Sungjae has looked rusty, but his short game should be a help. JT Poston is a good play but not a great value. Adam Hadwin should be a great play this week. Rory Sabbatini does well in the model and liked here last year.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Mav McNealy, Grace, HV3, Harman, Scott Stallings and Mark Hubbard are names I love in this range. Chris Kirk isn’t beloved by my model, but he’s a streaky player and dissed in the model because of his last few years.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. Peter Uihlein, Tom Hoge, Will Gordon and Harry Higgs are my guys in the bargain play.
My Rocket Mortgage Classic DraftKings lineup
- Webb Simpson – $11,000
- JT Poston – $8,700
- Brian Harman – $7,900
- Maverick McNealy – $7,600
- Scott Stallings – $7,500
- Will Gordon – $7,300