2020 Travelers Championship model and fantasy golf rankings
Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting Featured Forebucks PGA Tour

2020 Travelers Championship model and fantasy golf rankings



For years, I’ve made fantasy golf picks, power rankings and given betting tips about PGA Tour events.

I’ve looked at two main factors, current form and course history, and tried to bring those together to offer selections and my best guess as to who will contend in a given week.

However, for 2020, I wanted to become more sophisticated and develop a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. After some weeks of testing, I’m have this rubric where I want it. Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

FOR GNN PLUS MEMBERS ONLY!

For $5 per month or just $50 per year, GNN Plus members get access to our in-depth weekly DraftKings picks, searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present and top-15 PGA Tour trends.

You’ll also have access to our course fit modeling, Quality Stokes Gained data, course demand insights,¬†grass-specific performance and further tools, as well individual access to fantasy expert Ryan Ballengee for your unique questions.

BECOME A MEMBER NOW

ADDITIONAL TOOLS INCLUDE

    • Searchable PGA Tour results
    • PGA Tour top-15 finish trends
    • Player-course fit modeling
    • Course demands breakdown
    • Quality Strokes Gained data

To access this research hidden below and MANY more fantasy golf tools, sign up for GNN+!

[/s2If] [s2If is_user_logged_in()]

How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2020 Travelers Championship rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the top 30 in this field, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

We’re looking for quality, of course, but also for some value.

This week, the ranking again feels pretty apparent. We know who to like at this point. But I do find it interesting the model likes Ian Poulter yet again. Matt Fitzpatrick is an interesting name as well.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS ODDS RANK ODDS DK RANK DK PRICE
1 McIlroy, Rory 2.105 1 1200 1 11200
2 DeChambeau, Bryson 1.726 1 1200 2 11000
3 Thomas, Justin 1.646 1 1200 3 10800
4 Rahm, Jon 1.594 4 1600 4 10200
5 Rose, Justin 1.371 8 3000 8 9200
6 Woodland, Gary 1.241 14 4000 17 8300
7 Schauffele, Xander 1.182 5 2500 6 9600
8 Reed, Patrick 1.098 14 4000 13 8700
9 Morikawa, Collin 1.055 13 3500 9 9100
10 Johnson, Dustin 1.052 5 2500 7 9400
11 Finau, Tony 1.044 19 6000 19 6000
12 Im, Sungjae 0.918 8 3000 14 8600
13 Poulter, Ian 0.881 29 10000 23 7800
14 NeSmith, Matthew 0.851 44 15000 69 6600
15 Ancer, Abraham 0.766 8 3000 10 9000
16 Fitzpatrick, Matthew 0.766 19 6000 19 8100
17 Horschel, Billy 0.758 29 10000 33 7300
18 Hovland, Viktor 0.746 17 5000 23 7800
19 Niemann, Joaquin 0.67 14 4000 21 7900
20 Snedeker, Brandt 0.666 44 15000 36 7200
21 Dahmen, Joel 0.659 25 8000 25 7700
22 Scheffler, Scottie 0.639 25 8000 27 7600
23 Homa, Max 0.617 37 12500 45 7000
24 Watson, Bubba 0.614 5 2500 12 8800
25 Henley, Russell 0.581 44 15000 56 6800
26 Garcia, Sergio 0.557 19 6000 15 8500
27 Spieth, Jordan 0.547 17 5000 16 8400
28 Higgs, Harry 0.515 58 20000 86 6400
29 Furyk, Jim 0.484 58 20000 45 7000
30 Varner III, Harold 0.471 44 15000 40 7100
[/s2If]

About the author

Avatar

Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

Ryan occasionally links to merchants of his choosing, and GNN may earn a commission from sales generated by those links. See more in GNN's affiliate disclosure.

For all of our latest deals, see our GNN Deals site!