Each week, including this week’s 2019 BMW Championship, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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ADDITIONAL TOOLS INCLUDE
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- Player-course fit modeling
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- Quality Strokes Gained data
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2019 BMW Championship preview
The PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup playoffs shift to Chicagoland with the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club. This is an unknown venue, at least in recent years, but it’s a long course (7600+!) with long par 3s and some meaty par 4s. Driving is imperative here, and so is second-shot play.
Putting isn’t as paramount, particularly with quicker greens that are going to throw everyone off.
BONUS! This week, I’m running a contest with the new Secret Golf Tour fantasy app. You pick one golfer from each of four groups, and the team with the lowest score against par for BMW Championship wins! $10 to enter, top 3 paid.
2019 BMW Championship DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Jason Kokrak – 2 – T-6 Wyndham Championship, T-12 BMW Championship
- Collin Morikawa – 3 – T-2 3M Open, T-4 John Deere Classic, WIN Barracuda Championship
- Joaquin Niemann – 2 – T-10 John Deere Classic, T-13 Wyndham Championship
- Jon Rahm – 2 – T-11 British Open, 3rd BMW Championship
- Justin Thomas – 2 – T-11 British Open, T-12 BMW Championship
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-15 finishes in this event in the last five years, regardless of host venue.
- Jason Day – 2
- Tony Finau – 2
- Rickie Fowler – 4
- J.B. Holmes – 3
- Billy Horschel – 3
- Dustin Johnson – 2
- Matt Kuchar – 2
- Hideki Matsuyama – 2
- Rory McIlroy – 3
- Francesco Molinari – 2
- Ryan Palmer – 2
- Justin Rose – 3
- Adam Scott – 2
- Webb Simpson – 2
- Jordan Spieth – 4
- Justin Thomas – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
We don’t have a PGA Tour event at Medinah in recent memory, so we’re flying blind here a bit this week.
2019 BMW Championship DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and I think all of them are fine choices, but I would lean on Justin Rose, JT and Jon Rahm here. I’d say out of the 11,000s.
We have 19 players in this group, and this is where we typically want to center our team. Reed is hot and can stay that way. Webb is a great pick. Like Casey after a week off. Hideki is a solid pick.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Like Jason Kokrak, who continues to play well. Abe Ancer has enjoyed a solid year. Rafa Cabrera Bello should do well. Ben An is in decent form of late. Niemann and Im are solid choices.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. I like Wyndham Clark’s attitude, and Troy Merritt punched above his weight last week. Maybe Keith Mitchell if you think length is the play.
My primary DraftKings lineup
- Justin Thomas – $10,000
- Paul Casey – $8,400
- Hideki Matsuyama – $8,200
- Collin Morikawa – $7,900
- Jason Kokrak – $7,800
- Rafa Cabrera Bello – $7,500