2019 The Northern Trust DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks
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2019 The Northern Trust DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks



Each week, including this week’s 2019 The Northern Trust, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.

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2019 The Northern Trust preview

The PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup playoffs are here, and we return to Liberty National Golf Club for The Northern Trust. A field now at 121 is assembled for the first leg of the playoffs, which now has the most brutal cutdown — from the top 125 to the top 70 for the BMW Championship.

Liberty National is a ballstriker’s kinda course (every course is), but there may be some wind to contend with. The greens can be tricky to putt in places.

BONUS! This week, I’m running a contest with the new Secret Golf Tour fantasy app. You pick one golfer from each of four groups, and the team with the lowest score against par for The Northern Trust wins! $10 to enter, top 3 paid.

2019 The Northern Trust DraftKings picks

Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.

Finish Trends

Recent PGA Tour Trends

We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.

  • Lucas Glover – 2 – T-7 3M Open, T-10 John Deere Classic
  • Collin Morikawa – 3 – T-2 3M Open, T-4 John Deere Classic, WIN Barracuda Championship
  • Joaquin Niemann – 2 – T-10 John Deere Classic, T-13 Wyndham Championship
  • Roger Sloan – 2 – T-15 3M Open, T-10 John Deere Classic

Event Finish History

We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-15 finishes in this event in the last five years, regardless of host venue.

  • Patrick Cantlay – 2
  • Jason Day – 4
  • Tony Finau – 2
  • Rickie Fowler – 2
  • Jim Furyk – 2
  • Billy Horschel – 2
  • Dustin Johsnon – 3
  • Matt Kuchar – 2
  • Hideki Matsuyama – 2
  • Phil Mickelson – 3
  • Kevin Na – 2
  • Ryan Palmer – 2
  • Patrick Reed – 2
  • Adam Scott – 3
  • Jordan Spieth – 2
  • Justin Thomas – 3
  • Jhonattan Vegas – 2
  • Bubba Watson – 3
  • Gary Woodland – 2

Course Fits

It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.

I don’t feel particularly comfortable using the fit formula this week because we only have a couple of versions of this tournament at Liberty National, and the one in 2009 was before the massive overhaul.

However, here’s the top 15 from 2013.

  • 1. Adam Scott
  • 2. Graham DeLaet
  • 2. Justin Rose
  • 2. Gary Woodland
  • 2. Tiger Woods
  • 6. Jim Furyk
  • 6. Phil Mickelson
  • 6. D.A. Points
  • 9. Matt Every
  • 9. Rickie Fowler
  • 9. Jason Kokrak
  • 9. Nick Watney
  • 13. Rory Sabbatini
  • 13. Bubba Watson
  • 15. Kevin Chappell
  • 15. John Huh
  • 15. Webb Simpson
  • 15. Daniel Summerhays

2019 The Northern Trust DraftKings recommendations

$10,000 and up

We have five players in this group, and I think all of them are fine choices, but they’re budget killers in a deep field. Maybe JT is your best bet if you have to play in the five figures.

$8,000-$9,999

We have 18 players in this group, and this is where we typically want to center our team. Fleetwood, Rose, Simpson, Cantlay, Scott (who won here in 2013), Morikawa, Matsuyama and Horschel are the plays in my opinion.

$7,001-$7,999

DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Oosthuizen at $7,900 is criminal, and Rory Sabbatini and Matt Wolff are stupid cheap. Like Joaquin Niemann and Charles Howell III. Jason Kokrak continues playing great golf this year. I think Cameron Smith is playing way better than his $7,200 price.

Below or at $7,000

We’re looking for bargains in this range. Give me Russell Knox and Graeme McDowell. Denny McCarthy is tired but has found something. I can justify a Patrick Rodgers at $6,000.

My primary DraftKings lineup

  1. Tommy Fleetwood – $9,800
  2. Patrick Cantlay – $9,200
  3. Collin Morikawa – $8,500
  4. Billy Horschel – $8,000
  5. Cameron Smith – $7,200
  6. Russell Knox – $7,000
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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