Each week, including this week’s 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational preview
The four majors are over — tear — and now it’s time for the back stretch of the PGA Tour season. The top-billed of two events this week is the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, upgrading the old June event at TPC Southwind to a WGC in July.
This is a limited-field, no-cut event, with most of the world top 50 electing to play after The Open at Royal Portrush last week.
2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Brooks Koepka – 2 – 2nd US Open, T-4 British Open
- Hideki Matsuyama – 2 – T-13 Rocket Mortgage Classic, T-7 3M Open
- Jon Rahm – 3 – T-3 US Open, WIN Irish Open (Euro Tour), T-11 British Open
- Patrick Reed – 2 – T-5 Rocket Mortgage Classic, T-10 British Open
- Danny Willett – 2 – T-8 RBC Canadian Open, T-12 US Open
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We look at the last five years to see which players finish in the top 15 multiple times in that stetch (as it was in June).
- Billy Horschel – 3
- Dustin Johnson – 2
- Brooks Koepka – 2
- Phil Mickelson – 5
- Chez Reavie – 3
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
While TPC Southwind could play different a month later, here’s what we know about it as a June event:
Off the Tee: 17%
Around the Green: 10%
Some players who fit include:
2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and I feel good about Koepka, DJ, Rory and Rahm. All great drivers.
We have only 18 players in this group, and this is where we typically want to center our team. Xander is a great pick, as is Matt Kuchar and Hideki should do well. Tony Finau, Webb Simpson and Louis Oosthuizen should be solid picks.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Gotta like Chez Reavie given course experience. Danny Willett is getting things together. Billy Horschel and Matt Wolff should be strong choices. At $7,200, horse-for-course Phil Mickelson is kind of attractive. Cameron Smith should love this course.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. CT Pan should be a good fit, and Jim Furyk can skirt his way around anywhere. If you were desperate for a super cheap pick, Nate Lashley is your guy.
My primary DraftKings lineup
- Jon Rahm – $10,400
- Webb Simpson – $8,200
- Louis Oosthuizen – $8,100
- Chez Reavie – $7,900
- Matt Wolff – $7,500
- Billy Horschel – $7,500