Each week, including this week’s 2019 RBC Canadian Open, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2019 RBC Canadian Open preview
The US Open is next week, and ahead of the third major of the year, the PGA Tour is in Canada for the only time this season at the RBC Canadian Open.
Hamilton Golf and Country Club takes over for Glen Abbey Golf Club, which is set to be bulldozed over pending a long legal fight. In the meantime, a decent field, led by Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka, will look to get ready for Pebble Beach on a tight, classic-styled course.
2019 RBC Canadian Open DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Matt Kuchar – 2 – RBC Heritage 2nd, PGA Championship T-8
- Shane Lowry – 2 – RBC Heritage T-3, PGA Championship T-8
- Rory McIlroy – 2 – Wells Fargo T-8, PGA Championship T-8
- Scott Piercy – 2 – RBC Heritage T-3, Byron Nelson T-2
- Peter Uihlein – 2 – Byron Nelson 5th, Colonial T-13
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We look at the last five years to see which players finish in the top 15 multiple times in that stetch (despite Hamilton G&CC not hosting since 2012).
- Keegan Bradley – 2
- Jim Furyk – 3
- Dustin Johnson – 3
- Matt Kuchar – 3
- Brandt Snedeker – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Muirfield Village is one of the most-balanced and also most-demanding golf courses on the PGA Tour schedule. It tests everything, much more equally than other courses the pros see. This course doesn’t put as much of an advantage to second-shot golf, and recovery golf is key.
This week, we’re not going to use the model because we only have one year at Hamilton on hand.
2019 RBC Canadian Open DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I think no one is really worth using here, though Dustin Johnson has a great overall track record. He’s also almost $12,000.
We have only 13 players in this group (usually around 17), and this is where we typically want to center our team. However, we have few good choices this week. Sergio Garcia makes cuts, but he’s been skunky. Henrik Stenson is getting near a breakout. Jason Dufner is showing signs, but he’s expensive. Keegan Bradley is a guy to really like, as is Bud Cauley. Daniel Berger may be an interesting flier. Brandt Snedeker is a solid pick in this event. Webb Simpson is surging and may be the best high-price option.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. There’s honestly not a lot to love below $8,000. However, I think we can look to Brian Gay and Danny Lee. Graeme McDowell could be a great fit on this course. Harold Varner III could be a worthwhile pick on a classic course.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. I like Roberto Castro. That’s about it.
My primary DraftKings lineup
- Webb Simpson – $9,700
- Brandt Snedeker – $9,000
- Jim Furyk – $8,800
- Erik Van Rooyen – $7,800
- Danny Lee – $7,300
- Brian Gay – $7,200