Each week, including this week’s 2019 Memorial Tournament, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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ADDITIONAL TOOLS INCLUDE
- Searchable PGA Tour results
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- Player-course fit modeling
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- Course demands breakdown
- Quality Strokes Gained data
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2019 Memorial Tournament preview
The US Open is coming quickly, but before the third major of the year is played at Pebble Beach, Jack Nicklaus hosts most of the world top 50 at Muirfield Village Golf Club with the Memorial Tournament.
Tiger Woods leads the field as a five-time champion, and Bryson DeChambeau defends. With quick greens and a course that commands great ballstriking, this could be a great proxy for the US Open — and usually favors players who like Augusta National.
2019 Memorial Tournament DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last six individual PGA Tour events.
- Patrick Cantlay – 2 – RBC Heritage T-3, PGA Championship T-3
- Sung Kang – 2 – Byrons Nelson WIN, PGA Championship 7th
- Matt Kuchar – 2 – RBC Heritage 2nd, PGA Championship T-8
- Shane Lowry – 2 – RBC Heritage T-3, PGA Championship T-8
- Rory McIlroy – 2 – Wells Fargo T-8, PGA Championship T-8
- CT Pan – 2 – RBC Heritage WIN, Colonial T-3
- Pat Perez – 2 – Wells Fargo T-8, Byron Nelson T-12
- Scott Piercy – 2 – RBC Heritage T-3, Byron Nelson T-2
- Seamus Power – 2 – RBC Heritage T-6, Wells Fargo T-13
- Rory Sabbatini – 3 – RBC Heritage T-10, Byron Nelson T-5, Colonial 6th
- Jordan Spieth – 2 – PGA Championship T-3, Colonial T-8
- Peter Uihlein – 2 – Byron Nelson 5th, Colonial T-13
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We look at the last five years to see which players finish in the top 15 multiple times in that stetch.
- Byeong-hun An – 2
- Keegan Bradley – 2
- Tony Finau – 3
- Rickie Fowler – 2
- JB Holmes – 2
- Billy Horschel – 2
- Kevin Kisner – 2
- Matt Kuchar – 4
- Marc Leishman – 3
- David Lingmerth – 2
- Hideki Matsuyama – 3
- Rory McIlroy – 3
- Justin Rose – 2
- Jordan Spieth – 2
- Kyle Stanley – 2
- Kevin Streelman – 2
- Justin Thomas – 2
- Bubba Watson – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Muirfield Village is one of the most-balanced and also most-demanding golf courses on the PGA Tour schedule. It tests everything, much more equally than other courses the pros see. This course doesn’t put as much of an advantage to second-shot golf, and recovery golf is key.
Here’s our breakdown:
Tee to Green: 75%
Off the Tee: 18%
Around the Green: 22%
Based on this breakdown, here are some potential fits:
- Kyle Stanley
- Justin Rose
- Tiger Woods
- Scott Stallings
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Chez Reavie
- Henrik Stenson
2019 Memorial Tournament DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I think you’re best served with Patrick Cantlay in this range. Playing hot golf and saves some money.
We have 17 players in this group, and this is where we want to anchor our team. Still reluctant on Spieth, especially at $9,900. Gimme Finau and Kuchar all day. Matsuyama and DeChambeau are good fits, though their form isn’t swell. Gary Woodland and Adam Scott would be suitable replacements. Rory Sabbatini is a man on a roll. Jason Kokrak i sa great pick this week, as is Marc Leishman.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. I like Sung Kang, who’s a hot player right now. Billy Horschel is a solid pick. Keegan Bradley has a thing for Muirfield Village. Ben An is a solid play, as is Kevin Streelman. Peter Uihelin is even coming around.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. Scott Stallings could be a huge steal this week. Sticking with Matt Every, and Sungjae Im is silly cheap. Brian Gay is always a good choice.
My primary DraftKings lineup
I have multiple lineups in play this week
- Tony Finau – $9,600
- Matt Kuchar – $9,400
- Jason Kokrak – $8,200
- Billy Horschel – $7,700
- Byeong-hun An – $7,400
- Russell Knox – $7,100