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2019 RBC Heritage preview
The Masters was incredible. Unforgettable. And now the PGA Tour resumes with a month until the PGA Championship. Harbour Town Golf Links hosts the RBC Heritage, and with half of the top 50 playing, the field is stacked. This test is a total opposite from Augusta National in many ways, starting with the playing corridors. However, Masters participants from the week prior have a history of winning this tournament the next week.
2019 RBC Heritage DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last six individual PGA Tour events.
- Joel Dahmen – 2 – T-12 The Players, T-12 Corales Puntacana
- Lucas Glover – 2 – T-13 Valspar Championship, T-14 Valero Texas Open
- Mackenzie Hughes – 2 – T-13 Valspar Championship, T-2 Corales Puntacana
- Sungjae Im – 2 – T-4 Valspar Championship, T-7 Corales Puntacana
- Dustin Johnson – 3 – T-5 The Players, T-6 Valspar Championship, T-2 The Masters
- Jason Kokrak – 2 – T-2 Valspar Championship, T-7 Valero Texas Open
- Matt Kuchar – 2 – T-7 Valero Texas Open, T-12 The Masters
- Graeme McDowell – 2 – WIN Corales Puntacana, T-7 Valero Texas Open
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We look at the last five years to see which players finish in the top 15 multiple times in that stetch.
- Patrick Cantlay – 2
- Bryson DeChambeau – 2
- Luke Donald – 4
- Jim Furyk – 2
- Branden Grace – 3
- Bill Haas – 2
- Brian Harman – 2
- Si Woo Kim – 2
- Kevin Kisner – 3
- Russell Knox – 3
- Jason Kokrak – 2
- Matt Kuchar – 4
- Ian Poulter – 2
- Webb Simpson – 2
- Jordan Spieth – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Harbour Town Golf Links is one of the courses on the PGA Tour that emphasizes short game above others, primarily because of the narrow hitting corriders and smaller putting surfaces. There will be plenty of chipping and pitching for the field — that is, unless they gain a ton of strokes from the fairway and keep the ball in play.
Here’s our breakdown:
Tee to Green: 66%
Off the Tee: 15%
Around the Green: 12%
Based on this breakdown, here are some potential fits:
- Ian Poulter
- Branden Grace
- Billy Horschel
- Russell Knox
- Rory Sabbatini
- Hudson Swafford
- Matt Kuchar
2019 RBC Heritage DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I think they’ll all do well but all kill your budget. If you have to play in this space, lean on Matt Kuchar.
We have 17 players in this group, and this is where we want to anchor our team. Patrick Cantlay is gaining steam. Spieth may be on the improve, but he wasn’t really ever in the event. Jim Furyk is the all-time money winner here. Webb is a good pick, as are Fleetwood, Kisner, Kokrak and CH3. Poulter, Im, Marc Leishman are good picks, too.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Cam Smith and Justin Harding are good values given their world ranking. Lucas Glover, Russell Knox and Graeme McDowell are strong plays. Adam Hadwin could be a great fit. Grillo makes cuts. We’d be wrong in not at least mentioning Luke Donald. Eddie Pepperell is dirt cheap, and he loved another Dye course at The Players.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. Joel Dahmen, yes. Kevin Na, sure. Bill Haas and Scott Stallings seem to be on the comeback trail. Mac Hughes has put together some good finishes of late.
My primary DraftKings lineup
Note: I’m playing 5 lineups this week
- Tommy Fleetwood – $9,200
- Kevin Kisner – $9,100
- Ian Poulter – $8,600
- Sungjae Im – $8,400
- Eddie Pepperell – $7,200
- Joel Dahmen – $6,900