Each week, including this week’s 2019 The Players Championship, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()] [/s2If] [s2If is_user_logged_in()]
2019 The Players Championship preview
The PGA Tour is home! The Players is this week, back in March where it belongs. TPC Sawgrass and The Players Stadium Course again hosts, but with a slightly new look, the old wind direction and the weather of March. This should be a substantially different tournament than when it has been held in May for the last 12 years, but the demands of this Pete Dye masterpiece are still the same: Do everything right.
2019 The Players Championship DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last six individual PGA Tour events.
- Patrick Cantlay – 2 – T-15 Genesis Open, T-6 WGC Mexico
- Paul Casey – 2 – 2nd AT&T Pebble Beach, 3rd WGC Mexico
- Wyndham Clark – 2 – T-10 Puerto Rico Open, T-7 The Honda Classic
- Sergio Garcia – 2 – T-6 WGC Mexico, T-9 The Honda Classic
- Lucas Glover – 3 – T-7 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-4 The Honda Classic, T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Charles Howell III – 2 – T-6 Genesis Open, T-14 WGC Mexico, T-15 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Dustin Johnson – 2 – T-9 Genesis Open, WIN WGC Mexico
- Sung Kang – 2 – T-14 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-6 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Si Woo Kim – 2 – T-4 AT&T Pebble Beach, 3 Genesis Open
- Jason Kokrak – 2 – T-19 The Honda Classic, T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Luke List – 2 – T-15 Genesis Open, T-10 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Rory McIlroy – 3 – T-4 Genesis Open, 2nd WGC Mexico, T-6 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Keith Mitchell – 2 – WIN The Honda Classic, T-6 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Xander Schauffele – 2 – T-15 Genesis Open, T-14 WGC Mexico
- Justin Thomas – 2 – 2nd Genesis Open, T-9 WGC Mexico
- Michael Thompson – 2 – T-10 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-7 Genesis Open
- Tiger Woods – 2 – T-15 Genesis Open, T-10 WGC Mexico
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We look at the last five years to see which players finish in the top 15 multiple times in that stetch.
- Jason Day – 2
- Sergio Garcia – 2
- Chris Kirk – 3
- Rory McIlroy – 3
- Francesco Molinari – 3
- Ian Poulter – 2
- Adam Scott – 3
- Justin Thomas – 2
- Jimmy Walker – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
We only have two years of data for this tournament, but it’s worth noting how unimportant strokes-gained putting is relative to strokes-gained tee-to-green compared to other PGA Tour courses. Hitting these smaller greens is more important than anything this week.
Tee to Green: 68%
Off the Tee: 18%
Around the Green: 17%
Some good course fits include:
- Henrik Stenson
- Cameron Smith
- Jason Kokrak
- Brooks Koepka
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Emiliano Grillo
- Xander Schauffele
- Ian Poulter
- Daniel Berger
- Branden Grace
- Billy Horschel
- Russell Knox
- Adam Hadwin
- Rickie Fowler
- Matt Kuchar
2019 The Players Championship DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and it’ll be a struggle to stick with a team anchored by these guys. However, I like Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy in this group based on their current form and consistency on this course.
We have 16 players in this group, and this is where we want to anchor our team. I really believe in Jon Rahm this week, despite his past results. I like Sergio Garcia, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay and Francesco Molinari. Adam Scott gets around this place very well. Matt Kuchar is worth a look.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Paul Casey at $7,900 is crazy. Si Woo Kim is a super interesting play at $7,700. Ian Poulter is a great pick at $7,600. Marc Leishman, Gary Woodland and Rafa Cabrera Bello are phenomenal options in this price range. CH3 at $7,300 is absurd. Lucas Glover is just $7,100, which is mind-boggling.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. I’d look at Luke List, Russell Knox, Sungjae Im and Keith Mitchell. Matt Wallace at $6,700 is insane.
My primary DraftKings lineup
- Jon Rahm – $9,500
- Tommy Fleetwood – $8,800
- Francesco Molinari – $8,600
- Paul Casey – $7,900
- Ian Poulter – $7,600
- Rafa Cabrera Bello – $7,400