2019 WGC-Mexico Championship DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks
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2019 WGC-Mexico Championship DraftKings daily fantasy golf picks



Each week, including this week’s 2019 WGC-Mexico Championship, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.

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2019 WGC-Mexico Championship preview

The PGA Tour has gone to Mexico this week for the first World Golf Championships event of 2019. The Club de Golf Chapultepec hosts the WGC-Mexico Championship for the third year, with Phil Mickelson defending the title he won last year in a playoff over Justin Thomas.

This is a no-cut, 72-player event with 47 of the top 50 in the world playing. Only Justin Rose, Jason Day and Adam Scott are skipping, while every other significant golfer is in Mexico City and playing at altitude.

There are plenty of opportunities to score here, but errant driving can be punished if scrambling is poor.

2019 WGC-Mexico Championship DraftKings picks

Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.

Finish Trends

Recent PGA Tour Trends

We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.

  • Patrick Cantlay – 2 – T-9 Desert Classic, T-15 Genesis Open
  • Tony Finau – 2 – T-13 Farmers Insurance Open, T-15 Genesis Open
  • Hideki Matsuyama – 3 – 3rd Farmers Insurance Open, T-15 Phoenix Open, T-9 Genesis Open
  • Rory McIlroy – 2 – T-5 Farmers Insurance Open, T-4 Genesis Open
  • Phil Mickelson – 2 – T-2 Desert Classic, WIN AT&T Pebble Beach
  • Jon Rahm – 4 – T-6 Desert Classic, T-5 Farmers Insurance Open, T-10 Phoenix Open, T-9 Genesis Open
  • Xander Schauffele – 2 – T-10 Phoenix Open, T-15 Genesis Open
  • Cameron Smith – 2 – T-9 Farmers Insurance Open, T-15 Phoenix Open
  • Justin Thomas – 2 – 3rd Phoenix Open, 2nd Genesis Open
  • Bubba Watson – 2 – 4th Phoenix Open, T-15 Genesis Open
  • Gary Woodland – 2 – T-9 Farmers Insurance Open, T-7 Phoenix Open

Event Finish History

We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We look at the last two years to see which players finish in the top 15 multiple times in that stetch.

  • Tommy Fleetwood
  • Sergio Garcia
  • Tyrrell Hatton
  • Dustin Johnson
  • Phil Mickelson
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Justin Thomas

Course Fits

It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.

We only have two years of data for this tournament, but it’s worth noting how unimportant strokes-gained putting is relative to strokes-gained tee-to-green compared to other PGA Tour courses. Hitting these smaller greens is more important than anything this week.

Putting: 26%
Tee to Green: 74%
Off the Tee: 21%
Approach: 41%
Around the Green: 12%

Some good course fits include:

  • Kyle Stanley
  • Tommy Fleetwood
  • Jon Rahm
  • Louis Oosthuizen
  • Justin Thomas
  • Tiger Woods
  • Rafa Cabrera Bello
  • Bryson DeChambeau
  • Chez Reavie
  • Satoshi Kodaira
  • Henrik Stenson
  • Dustin Johnson
  • Cameron Smith
  • Brooks Koepka

2019 WGC-Mexico Championship DraftKings recommendations

$10,000 and up

We have six players in this group, and they will all kill your budget. However, JT, DJ, McIlroy and Rahm are great picks. DeChambeau is, too. I’m not the biggest Fowler fan here.

$8,000-$9,999

We have 16 players in this group, and this is where we want to acquire at least half our team. Tiger is a good pick, and Xander is fresh and playing well. Hideki Matsuyama is freaking back. Spieth plays well here, but his weekends are downright Hossler-esque right now. Leishman and Casey are good calls. Tommy Fleetwood should be a great choice to get out of a bit of a slump. Sergio likes this place.

$7,001-$7,999

DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. We get some absurd value this week in this range, which makes the WGC games fun. Gary Woodland, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Billy Horschel, Louis Oosthuizen and Cameron Smith are all beautiful choices in this range. Chez Reavie should love this place, and he’s $7,100.

Below or at $7,000

We’re looking for bargains in this range, and you can get guys you wouldn’t otherwise get in this range. Russell Knox is intriguing. Abe Ancer and Andrew Putnam come to mind. Kyle Stanley is struggling, but at $6,400 and guaranteed four rounds, he could be worth it.

My primary DraftKings lineup

  1. Jon Rahm – $10,700
  2. Tiger Woods – $9,500
  3. Rafa Cabrera Bello – $7,800
  4. Louis Oosthuizen – $7,500
  5. Cameron Smith – $7,400
  6. Chez Reavie – $7,100
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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