Each week, including this week’s 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()] [/s2If] [s2If is_user_logged_in()]
2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open preview
The PGA Tour is in Scottsdale this week as the pre-Super Bowl LIII party headquarters, with TPC Scottsdale hosting the Waste Management Phoenix Open. We’ve got a very good field here, with Jon Rahm, Gary Woodland, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Phil Mickelson the big headliners this week.
This is typically a course where getting to 16-18 under gives you a great chance to win. That means taking advantage of the medium-length par 5s, as well No. 17, and driving aggressively. The riff-raff on No. 16 is fun for the whole week, but it’s not that important of a hole to the tournament.
A couple of quick notes:
- An apology for last week is in order. I was at the PGA Merchandise Show all last week, drumming up business for Golf News Net. I didn’t have much time to actually sit down and do this properly, and I refuse to half-ass these picks for you.
- Starting with the Genesis Open next week, I’m going to start a weekly thread on our underutilized forum to take your questions on specific players and situations for each tournament. Hopefully we can all help each other out a bit, but I want to make it as easy as possible to reach out to me with particular fantasy questions.
2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Cameron Champ – 2 – T-6 RSM Classic, T-11 Tournament of Champions
- Lucas Glover – 2 – T-11 RSM Classic, T-12 Desert Classic
- Talor Gooch – 2 – 4th Desert Classic, T-3 Farmers Insurance Open
- Patton Kizzire – 3 – T-15 RSM Classic, T-8 Tournament of Champions, T-13 Sony Open
- Andrew Putnam – 2 – T-14 Tournament of Champions, 2nd Sony Open
- Jon Rahm – 3 – T-8 Tournament of Champions, 6th Desert Classic, T-6 Farmers Insurance Open
- Webb Simpson – 2 – T-3 RSM Classic, T-8 Tournament of Champions
- Gary Woodland – 2 – 2nd Tournament of Champions, T-9 Farmers Insurance Open
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We look at the last five years to see which players finish in the top 15 multiple times in that stetch.
- Daniel Berger – 3
- Harris English – 2
- Rickie Fowler – 3
- Zach Johnson – 3
- Matt Kuchar – 2
- Martin Laird – 3
- Hideki Matsuyama – 4
- Phil Mickelson – 3
- Ryan Moore – 2
- Jon Rahm – 2
- Webb Simpson – 3
- Brendan Steele – 2
- Bubba Watson – 3
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
After back-to-back weeks of having to deal with incomplete (at best) ShotLink data because of a multi-course tournament, we’re back to normal this week (with being screwed up again next week at Pebble on the horizon).
Here’s our model for this week:
Tee to Green: 69%
Off the Tee: 21%
Around the Greens: 16%
Some course fits include:
- Cameron Smith
- Emiliano Grillo
- Xander Schauffele
- Daniel Berger
- Billy Horschel
- Russell Knox
- Adam Hadwin
- Rickie Fowler
2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have four players in this group, and I feel good about them all, but I think Rahm and Schauffele can be budget busters. Maybe it’s Hideki Matsuyama all the way here.
We have 19 players in this group, and I like a lot of players in this range. If you want to avoid $10,000-plus players, Gary Woodland, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Mickelson, Kuchar, Cam Smith, Adam Hadwin and Billy Horschel scream out to me. Andrew Putnam, Daniel Berger and Cameron Champ are good on the lower end of this range.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Tyrrell Hatton is a good choice, as is Keegan Bradley. Ryan Palmer is on the comeback trail, and Martin Laird loves this play. Emiliano Grillo should love this place, and Talor Gooch is on fire. Patton Kizzire is a good pick, and so is Russell Knox. Ryan Moore, Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im and Lucas Glover are great values.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range, but I think you can stack your team with guys in the $7,000s. Harris English and Joel Dahmen are really the best picks. Both are making cuts, and English loves this event. Brian Gay and Nick Taylor keep making cuts, too.
My primary DraftKings lineup
- Webb Simpson – $9,700
- Phil Mickelson – $9,300
- Billy Horschel – $8,800
- Martin Laird – $7,600
- Sungjae Im – $7,300
- JJ Spaun – $7,100