Each week, including this week’s 2018 Dell Technologies Championship, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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ADDITIONAL TOOLS INCLUDE
- Searchable PGA Tour results database — A full database of PGA Tour results dating back to 2011, including strokes gained breakouts, money, designers and grass info.
- PGA Tour top-15 finish trends — A look at the players who have finished in the top 15 in any of the last five PGA Tour events.
- Player-course fit modeling — This one is experimental, but I think it has lots of potential. This tool looks at the breakdown of each player’s Strokes Gained Putting, Approach, Off the Tee and Tee to Green when they finish in the top 25 and compare to the averages in those categories for top 25 finishers at each week’s event. I believe similarities in the breakouts can help clue us in to potential course fits (or horses for courses).
- Player performance comparison — Each player has different strengthes and, therefore, a different path to success, be that finishing in the top 15 or making the cut. So, we compare Strokes Gained Putting, Approach and Off the Tee when each player finishes in those positions to help understand player strengths and weaknesses.
- Strokes gained putting by grass type — Some guys just putt better on Bermudagrass or Bentgrass, the two dominant strains on the PGA Tour. Always helps to see specialists on either surface.
- NEW! Strokes gained by course length
- NEW! Strokes gained by course par
- Course demands: Each week, you’ll be able to see the strokes gained breakout — putting, approach, off the tee, tee to green — for each host course compared to the PGA Tour as it relates to winners, top-15 finishers and top-30 finishers.
- Top average Quality Strokes Gained for the year: Our Quality Strokes Gained combines strokes gained and strength-of-field figures into a single statistic, so this data shows the players who perform the best against the best competition.
- Top 50 QSG performances of the year: We wanted to help you understand Quality Strokes Gained more broadly, so we have the rolling list of the top 50 QSG performances of the year.
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2018 Dell Technologies Championship preview
We continue the playoffs this week with the final edition of the Dell Technologies Championship. TPC Boston is going in the mix to host The Northern Trust, but the par-71 Gil Hanse redesign of Arnold Palmer’s original work hosts the top 100 in the FedEx Cup standings this week.
We have plenty of horses for courses this week, and we have a good mix of quality playing well. There’s some crossover there, too, including Jason Day, Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson. Throw in Patrick Cantlay, Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott, too.
2018 Dell Technologies Championship DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual, non-opposite-field, stroke-play PGA Tour events.
- Rafa Cabrera Bello – 2 – T-10 PGA Championship, T-11 Wyndham Championship
- Tommy Fleetwood – 2 – T-12 British Open, T-6 RBC Canadian Open
- Kevin Kisner – 2 – T-2 British Open, T-12 PGA Championship
- Jordan Spieth – 2 – T-9 British Open, T-12 PGA Championship
- Tiger Woods – 2 – T-6 British Open, 2nd PGA Championship
Event Finish History
Here are the players who finished in the top 15 in this event in the last 5 years:
- Paul Casey – 2
- Kevin Chappell – 2
- Jason Day – 4
- Russell Knox – 2
- Matt Kuchar – 2
- Rory McIlroy – 2
- Louis Oosthuizen – 2
- Patrick Reed – 3
- Jordan Spieth – 2
- Henrik Stenson – 2
- Jimmy Walker – 2
- Gary Woodland – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Of course, current form then informs thinking around these possible course fits. However, in concept, many of these names make some sense and help narrow down a potential list of golfers.
TPC Boston has very little to do with length. I mean, it can’t hurt, but it’s not imperative to success. This course skews hard toward approach play and putting. It’s tight enough to cause trouble for wild drivers, while top iron players will thrive.
Here’s a breakdown of what we’re looking for this week:
Some players who fit this mold include:
- Brandt Snedeker
- Kevin Streelman
- Peter Uihlein
- Cameron Smith
- Ian Poulter
- Jimmy Walker
- Branden Grace
- Emiliano Grillo
- Russell Knox
- Matt Kuchar
2018 Dell Technologies Championship DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I think you can go with any of the five, but I would avoid Rory out of an abundance of caution.
We have 12 players in this group, and I love building your team in this range.
I would look at Adam Scott, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Reed to lead out of this grouping. Webb Simpson has to get a look, too. Tony Finau and Phil Mickelson have caught my eye as well.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. There are still plenty of good choices in this range.
I like Brandt Snedeker a LOT in this range. I also like Ian Poulter, Matt Kuchar, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Charley Hoffman, Emiliano Grillo and Cameron Smith.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range with a threat to top-10.
Ryan Palmer, Russell Knox and Brian Gay are my guys in this range. Kevin Streelman and Chesson Hadley should enjoy good weeks.
My primary DraftKings lineup
- Jason Day – $10,400
- Tony Finau – $8,800
- Patrick Reed – $8,400
- Phil Mickelson – $8,200
- Jimmy Walker – $7,100
- Stewart Cink – $7,100