Each week, including this week’s 2018 A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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ADDITIONAL TOOLS INCLUDE
- Searchable PGA Tour results database — A full database of PGA Tour results dating back to 2011, including strokes gained breakouts, money, designers and grass info.
- PGA Tour top-15 finish trends — A look at the players who have finished in the top 15 in any of the last five PGA Tour events.
- Player-course fit modeling — This one is experimental, but I think it has lots of potential. This tool looks at the breakdown of each player’s Strokes Gained Putting, Approach, Off the Tee and Tee to Green when they finish in the top 25 and compare to the averages in those categories for top 25 finishers at each week’s event. I believe similarities in the breakouts can help clue us in to potential course fits (or horses for courses).
- Player performance comparison — Each player has different strengthes and, therefore, a different path to success, be that finishing in the top 15 or making the cut. So, we compare Strokes Gained Putting, Approach and Off the Tee when each player finishes in those positions to help understand player strengths and weaknesses.
- Strokes gained putting by grass type — Some guys just putt better on Bermudagrass or Bentgrass, the two dominant strains on the PGA Tour. Always helps to see specialists on either surface.
- NEW! Strokes gained by course length
- NEW! Strokes gained by course par
- Course demands: Each week, you’ll be able to see the strokes gained breakout — putting, approach, off the tee, tee to green — for each host course compared to the PGA Tour as it relates to winners, top-15 finishers and top-30 finishers.
- Top average Quality Strokes Gained for the year: Our Quality Strokes Gained combines strokes gained and strength-of-field figures into a single statistic, so this data shows the players who perform the best against the best competition.
- Top 50 QSG performances of the year: We wanted to help you understand Quality Strokes Gained more broadly, so we have the rolling list of the top 50 QSG performances of the year.
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2018 A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier preview
Before we get into this week’s tournament at The Greenbrier in West Virginia, can we speak candidly for a second about the name change? It’s pretty bad. Alright, horrible. I’m as much of a patriot as any American, but that name just does not roll off the tongue. Maybe the Patriot Greenbrier Classic or something? Less words, more America.
Anyhow, the field isn’t very good this week. We’ve got Bubba, Phil, Tony Finau, Joaquin Niemann and Webb Simpson as the headliners. Russell Henley is a great option. And then it gets thin.
2018 A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual, stroke-play PGA Tour events.
- Ryan Armour – 2 – T-14 Colonial, 2nd National
- Ben Crane – 2 – T-8 Colonial, T-13 National
- Tony Finau – 2 – T-13 Memorial, T-5 US Open
- Brian Gay – 2 – T-12 FedEx St. Jude Classic, T-8 National
- JB Holmes – 2 – T-13 Memorial, T-3 FedEx St. Jude Classic
- Phil Mickelson – 2 – T-13 Memorial, T-12 FedEx St. Jude Classic
- Joaquin Niemann – 2 – T-8 Colonial, T-6 Memorial
Event Finish History
Here are the players who finished in the top 15 in this event in the last 5 years (remembering the 2016 event was cancelled because of flooding):
- Steven Bowditch – 2
- Tony Finau – 2
- David Hearn – 2
- Russell Henley – 2
- Danny Lee – 2
- David Lingmerth – 2
- Rory Sabbatini – 2
- Webb Simpson – 2
- Robert Streb – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Of course, current form then informs thinking around these possible course fits. However, in concept, many of these names make some sense and help narrow down a potential list of golfers.
The Old White TPC was renovated after the floods of 2016, with Keith Foster coming in and doing one of the more heralded facelifts of the year. Many of the C.B. MacDonald greens were made bigger, with their original contours restored. There’s plenty of room to play off the tee throughout The Old White, and there’s a good mix of holes of varying distances.
Here’s the breakdown of the ideal player for The Old White TPC:
Off the Tee: 20.4%
Tee to Green: 66.5%
Based on that data, some great course fits include:
- Jim Furyk
- Rory Sabbatini
- Jimmy Walker
- Kevin Streelman
- Robert Streb
- Wesley Bryan
- JT Poston
- JB Holmes
- Joaquin Niemann
- Danny Lee
- Phil Mickelson
- Charles Howell III
- Webb Simpson
2018 A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and I think they’re all kinda overpriced, Phil and Bubba in particular. I’d look at Henley over Simpson and save a little money. I love Finau, but I can’t play him at that price.
We have 15 players in this group, and the strategy this week should really be to build in this price range. Joaquin Niemann is a great high-dollar name if you want to avoid the $10,000-plus range. Brian Harman should love it here, as should Jimmy Walker. Danny Lee has a good record here, and I think Kevin Streelman makes sense, too. In concept, Brian Gay should do great here. He’s accurate and putts well, but his Greenbrier record stinks.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. We have some OK names in this price range, but we can’t sink below $7,000 this week, so we have to play in these waters.
Ryan Armour should be a name to like, and I think Ollie Schniderjans is coming along, but that’s a risky play. Abraham Ancer is doing a lot with very little this year. Rory Sabbatini is your cut-maker, with a pretty good record here. Jim Furyk is $7,000, which is silly.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range with a threat to top-10. Please try to avoid this range.
Bronson Burgoon has done a lot with limited status this year. Sean O’Hair has done damage here in the past. I have an inkling about John Peterson, as well.
My primary DraftKings lineup
- Brian Harman – $9,500
- Jimmy Walker – $9,100
- Anirban Lahiri – $8,300
- Ryan Armour – $7,700
- Ollie Schniderjans – $7,700
- Abraham Ancer – $7,300