Not sure how many times we’ll be able to do this, so we’re making it the lede: Last week, we made three picks and two of them (Cameron Smith/Marc Leishman to win at +1200, Billy Horschel/Sam Burns to finish top 10 at +225) both cashed. Here’s hoping you grabbed some profit.
As for this week, the Tour has moved east to Tampa Bay and is back to traditional solo stroke play, so let’s see where the value lies as we dive headfirst into our picks and predictions for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club.
The quality of the players on offer this week has ticked up markedly for the Valspar compared to recent weeks. Even the best players in the world need to pick up an easy check now and then.
The top two players in the most recent Official World Golf Ranking (Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas) are in the field, as well as numbers 7 and 8 (Patrick Reed, Tyrrell Hatton). Also featuring are Viktor Hovland (#15), Sungjae Im (#19) and Paul Casey (#20). The level of golf this week promises to be much better than in the past couple of weeks.
With Paul Casey going for a three-peat this week in Tampa (won 2018, won 2019, canceled in 2020)…
Over the last 40 years, there have been 8 instances of a player winning the same @PGATOUR title 3 straight years.
Tiger Woods has 6 of them.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) April 26, 2021
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Valspar Championship Betting Odds
Let’s take a look at the current Valspar Championship betting odds:
| Players | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Justin Thomas | +1000 |
| Dustin Johnson | +1100 |
| Corey Conners | +1800 |
| Patrick Reed | +1800 |
| Paul Casey | +2200 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2200 |
| Scottie Scheffler | +2800 |
| Sungjae Im | +2800 |
| Abraham Ancer | +2500 |
| Russell Henley | +3000 |
| Jason Kokrak | +3500 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +3500 |
| Justin Rose | +3500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +4500 |
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VALUE PICK: PAUL CASEY TOP 10 (+275)
Like so many other events, the Valspar was not played in 2020 due to the global pandemic. Who won this event in 2019, on this very golf course? Paul Casey did. He won it in 2018, too. But it’s not those long-ago victories that make this pick sensible, it’s Casey’s play in 2021. In six 2021 starts, Casey has four top-10 finishes.
He followed those strong performances up with a respectable 26th at the Masters, then missed the cut at Harbour Town two weeks ago. Casey did not play in New Orleans last week. The rest might have done him some good. And again, we’re not asking Casey to win again, or even come all that close to winning. We just need him in the top 10. That’s manageable for a player of his talent and given his history on this golf course.
Featured Groups for this week's @ValsparChamp:
🏌 Justin Thomas
🏌 Dustin Johnson
🏌 Joaquin Niemann️⛳️ Max Homa
️⛳️ Viktor Hovland
️⛳️ Sungjae Im🏌 Phil Mickelson
🏌 Tyrrell Hatton
🏌 Patrick Reed⛳️ Gary Woodland
⛳️ Paul Casey
⛳️ Jason Kokrak pic.twitter.com/Tci5f8S9ZN— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 27, 2021
LONG SHOT PICK: JASON KOKRAK TOP 5 (+750)
In 2019, Jason Kokrak and Louis Oosthuizen finished tied for second behind Casey at this tournament. Kokrak is not a household name, but he’s 35th in the current Official World Golf Ranking and, like Casey, he has had a very strong run in 2021. Since he’s not one of these players who can stack endorsement money, Kokrak plays a lot of golf.
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This calendar year, Kokrak has made eight starts without missing a single cut. And before a desultory 49th place finish at the Masters, Kokrak was in the top 10 for three straight weeks at The Concession, Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass – three difficult courses that demand exacting ball-striking. Kind of like, oh, the Copperhead.
Sungjae Im finished the week at 15 under par, shooting the lowest score ever in a Masters debut. #themasters pic.twitter.com/RwYKaALRN7
— The Masters (@TheMasters) November 15, 2020
PICK TO WIN THE VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP: SUNGJAE IM (+2800)
The 23-year-old South Korean Sungjae Im is gradually becoming a player you just cannot ignore. Im announced himself as a serious talent with his 2nd place finish to Dustin Johnson at the 2020 Masters this past November. Since then, Im has made 12 starts, made the cut in 10 of them, and posted a 5th place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January and an 8th place finish at The Honda Classic in March.
Im was in the hunt at Harbour Town two weeks ago before a final-round 72 knocked him down to 13th place. It’s also worth noting that Im finished tied for 4th at this event in 2019.
This isn’t a pick based on Im being “due” to win. Nobody is really ever “due” to win; you either have the talent and the courage to do it or you don’t. Im has demonstrated plenty of both qualities in the past three months – this could well be the week he gets his first Tour victory.
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