Each week, including this week's 2021 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.
2021 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship DraftKings picks
Each week, we'll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Finish Trends
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Chase Seiffert - 2 - T-15 Puerto Rico Open, T-3 The Honda Classic
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We're looking at players who have advanced to the knockout stage multiple times in the two times this event has been played.
- Kelly Kraft - 2
Course Fits
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit -- or a potential course fit, at least -- if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week's event.
Unfortunately, we don't have detailed strokes gained for this event.
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It's important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- Trainer, Martin: 2.177
- Wagner, Johnson: 2.142
- Willett, Danny: 1.689
- Kodaira, Satoshi: 1.058
- Lewis, Tom: 1.032
- Chalmers, Greg: 1.003
- Love III, Davis: 0.967
- Stefani, Shawn: 0.958
- Taylor, Ben: 0.911
- Sloan, Roger: 0.837
Here are the underperformers:
- Bozzelli, Dominic: -4.305
- Herbert, Lucas: -2.658
- Barnes, Ricky: -2.341
- Gligic, Michael: -1.995
- Byrd, Jonathan: -1.678
- Villegas, Camilo: -1.676
- McDowell, Graeme: -1.674
- Gellerman, Michael: -1.554
- Spaun, J.J.: -1.453
- Roach, Wes: -1.45
We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player's relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!
This week's model
Also, we've updated our tools comparing players' strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2021 Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I like Grillo and Hoffman. Pieters and Detry are too much for what you might not get.
$8,000-$9,999
We have 19 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. I like Vegas, Wu, Justin Suh, Patrick Rodgers, Taylor Pendrith and Chase Seiffert.
$7,001-$7,999
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Tyler McCumber is a good play. Greyson Sigg, Peter Uihlein, Scott Harrington, Kris Ventura, Joseph Bramlett, Kelly Kraft.
Below or at $7,000
We're looking for bargains in this range. Satoshi Kodaira is playing better. Paul Barjon is solid on the KFT. Maybe Miguel Angel Jimenez.
A sample Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship DraftKings GPP lineup
- Charley Hoffman - $10,200
- Justin Suh - $8,700
- Patrick Rodgers - $8,300
- Chase Seiffert - $8,000
- Scott Harrington - $7,600
- Joseph Bramlett - $7,100
