2020 Masters Tournament model and fantasy golf rankings
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2020 Masters Tournament model and fantasy golf rankings



For years, I’ve made fantasy golf picks, power rankings and given betting tips about PGA Tour events.

I’ve looked at two main factors, current form and course history, and tried to bring those together to offer selections and my best guess as to who will contend in a given week.

However, I developed a weekly rubric which offers a clear-cut ranking system based on data points weighted in a formula. So far, it’s been a tremendous success. Here’s a look at the PGA Tour winners in the restart and where they landed in the model:

  • Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Daniel Berger – No. 21
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson – No. 7
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson – No. 10
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 2
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa – No. 11
  • the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm – No. 6
  • WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Justin Thomas – No. 6
  • PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa – No. 13
  • The Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson – No. 20
  • BMW Championship: Jon Rahm – No. 2
  • US Open: Bryson DeChambeau – No. 9
  • Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia – No. 40
  • CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak – No. 17
  • Zozo Championship at Sherwood: Patrick Cantlay – No. 9

Let me walk you through the rubric’s tenets and show off this week’s results.
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How the rubric works

The reason I’m calling this a rubric is because I think a model implies a guess about how the tournament will play out. I don’t think any model can do that. There are plenty of factors data can’t quantify, including luck of the draw, playing partners, hole locations, weather and sheer random stuff.

That’s why the rubric is rooted in things we can quantify more broadly without getting too into the weeds. I don’t believe specific statistics matter for each course. Each player is different, and they achieve their best results slightly differently, as our Course Fit tool indicates. A player can perform well on most PGA Tour courses doing things their way, and their past performance on a course is best indicative of their fit, not where they rank in certain categories.

That said, the biggest chunk of my rubric relies on strokes gained, as well our derivative, Quality Strokes Gained, which weights a player’s strokes gained against the depth of field they face. The rubric looks at this data over the longer term and medium term to derive a player’s quality across the tour and across different fields.

Next, the rubric accounts for two factors I look at every week: current form in the last five PGA Tour events played and their average strokes gained on the host course in the last three years.

All told, the model is designed to point out quality players and boost those middling players who have good current form or good course history.

2020 Masters rankings

You’ll see with the rubric that I’ve listed the entire field, as well their current betting odds and DraftKings price.

This is an interesting week in Augusta. We’ve never had a fall Masters, and we don’t have Augusta-specific strokes-gained data. A handful of players who would otherwise be here aren’t. Some name have WD’d. We have lots of past champions and amateurs who won’t contend. And yet we can still find some value in this model.

Click header to sort; the better their position, the more the rubric likes them

POS PLAYER PTS DK PRICE DK RANK ODDS ODDS RANK
1 DeChambeau, Bryson 2.105 11200 1 1000 1
2 Rahm, Jon 1.98 10500 3 1200 2
3 Schauffele, Xander 1.942 9800 6 1400 5
4 McIlroy, Rory 1.916 10200 4 1200 2
5 Thomas, Justin 1.856 10700 2 1400 5
6 Simpson, Webb 1.75 9300 11 3500 12
7 Johnson, Dustin 1.68 10000 5 1200 2
8 Scott, Adam 1.547 8900 15 4000 17
9 Finau, Tony 1.524 8800 16 3000 10
10 Morikawa, Collin 1.493 9500 9 3500 12
11 Matsuyama, Hideki 1.459 8700 17 5000 20
12 Wolff, Matthew 1.448 8500 19 4000 17
13 Cantlay, Patrick 1.374 9600 8 2500 8
14 Koepka, Brooks 1.357 9700 7 2000 7
15 Scheffler, Scottie 1.304 7800 25 6000 23
16 Reed, Patrick 1.246 9200 12 2500 8
17 Westwood, Lee 1.067 7200 34 15000 39
18 Kokrak, Jason 0.998 7000 40 10000 28
19 van Rooyen, Erik 0.977 6900 43 25000 51
20 Fitzpatrick, Matthew 0.932 7600 27 8000 26
21 Day, Jason 0.893 8400 20 3500 12
22 Rose, Justin 0.885 7700 26 5000 20
23 Oosthuizen, Louis 0.825 7900 24 6000 23
24 Casey, Paul 0.78 8000 23 8000 26
25 Woodland, Gary 0.746 7300 31 15000 39
26 Hatton, Tyrrell 0.738 9400 10 3500 12
27 Im, Sungjae 0.73 7500 28 10000 28
28 Griffin, Lanto 0.721 6600 55 20000 47
29 Fleetwood, Tommy 0.696 8600 18 4000 17
30 Poulter, Ian 0.645 7000 40 20000 47
31 Lowry, Shane 0.629 7300 31 10000 28
32 Todd, Brendon 0.616 7100 37 12500 35
33 Ancer, Abraham 0.594 7400 30 10000 28
34 Fowler, Rickie 0.56 8100 22 5000 20
35 Horschel, Billy 0.552 7200 34 15000 39
36 Smith, Cameron 0.531 7300 31 10000 28
37 An, Byeong Hun 0.508 6700 51 25000 51
38 Glover, Lucas 0.507 6400 64 30000 58
39 Wallace, Matt 0.49 6800 47 15000 39
40 Snedeker, Brandt 0.481 6900 43 15000 39
41 Watson, Bubba 0.479 9000 14 3000 10
42 Bezuidenhout, Christiaan 0.453 6600 55 30000 58
43 Johnson, Zach 0.443 6800 47 20000 47
44 Woods, Tiger 0.439 9100 13 3500 12
45 Kisner, Kevin 0.436 7100 37 12500 35
46 Reavie, Chez 0.293 6500 59 25000 51
47 Champ, Cameron 0.276 7100 37 10000 28
48 Conners, Corey 0.266 6600 55 20000 47
49 Frittelli, Dylan 0.264 6500 59 30000 58
50 Na, Kevin 0.208 6700 51 25000 51
51 Howell III, Charles 0.14 6400 64 30000 58
52 Spieth, Jordan 0.113 8200 21 6000 23
53 Hadwin, Adam 0.108 6500 59 30000 58
54 Poston, J.T. 0.088 6300 69 25000 51
55 Schwartzel, Charl 0.054 6500 59 30000 58
56 Kuchar, Matt 0.039 7200 34 12500 35
57 Langer, Bernhard -0.1 6100 79 100000 77
58 Munoz, Sebastian -0.108 6700 51 15000 39
59 Duncan, Tyler -0.112 6300 69 50000 68
60 Stenson, Henrik -0.142 6800 47 25000 51
61 Landry, Andrew -0.192 6200 74 60000 71
62 Homa, Max -0.198 6400 64 30000 58
63 Taylor, Nick -0.203 6400 64 60000 71
64 Lashley, Nate -0.215 6200 74 60000 71
65 Willett, Danny -0.222 7000 40 25000 51
66 Molinari, Francesco -0.237 6700 51 10000 28
67 Leishman, Marc -0.28 6900 43 15000 39
68 Wiesberger, Bernd -0.288 6900 43 30000 58
69 Putnam, Andrew -0.448 6200 74 60000 71
70 Imahira, Shugo -0.487 6200 74 60000 71
71 McDowell, Graeme -0.505 6400 64 50000 68
72 Pan, C.T. -0.555 6100 79 100000 77
73 Mickelson, Phil -0.717 7500 28 12500 35
74 Harding, Justin -0.741 6300 69 50000 68
75 Perez, Victor -0.825 6500 59 40000 67
76 Weir, Mike -0.844 6000 85 200000 82
77 Walker, Jimmy -0.905 6300 69 100000 77
78 Kim, Si Woo -0.971 6800 47 15000 39
79 Singh, Vijay -1.02 6000 85 200000 82
80 Janewattananond, Jazz -1.047 6200 74 100000 77
81 Augenstein, John -1.104 6100 79 300000 85
82 Kang, Sung -1.168 6300 69 60000 71
83 Ogletree, Andy -1.996 6000 85 200000 82
84 Cabrera Bello, Rafa -2.29 6600 55 30000 58
85 Couples, Fred -2.4 6100 79 100000 77
86 Olazabal, Jose Maria -2.5 6000 85 500000 91
87 Immelman, Trevor -2.8 6100 79 300000 85
88 Lin, Yuxin -3 6100 79 300000 85
89 Lyle, Sandy -3.2 6000 85 1000000 92
90 Mize, Larry -3.2 6000 85 1000000 92
91 Gallegos, Abel -3.5 6000 85 300000 85
92 Sugrue, James -4.132 6000 85 300000 85
93 Michel, Lukas -6.197 6000 85 300000 85
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About the author

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Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

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