Each week, including this week’s 2020 Masters, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)]
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2020 Masters DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Patrick Cantlay – 2 – T-8 Shriners Open, WIN Zozo Championship
- Lanto Griffin – 2 – T-7 CJ Cup, T-11 Zozo Championship
- Tyrrell Hatton – 2 – T-3 CJ Cup, T-7 Houston Open
- Sebastian Munoz – 2 – T-9 CJ Cup, T-14 Zozo Championship
- Cameron Smith – 2 – T-11 CJ Cup, T-4 Zozo Championship
- Justin Thomas – 2 – T-12 CJ Cup, T-2 Zozo Championship
- Bubba Watson – 2 – T-7 CJ Cup, T-4 Zozo Championship
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We’re looking at players with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five years.
- Paul Casey – 3
- Jason Day – 2
- Tony Finau – 2
- Rickie Fowler – 3
- Dustin Johnson – 3
- Brooks Koepka – 2
- Matt Kuchar – 2
- Hideki Matsuyama – 2
- Rory McIlroy – 3
- Louis Oosthuizen – 2
- Jon Rahm – 2
- Justin Rose – 3
- Jordan Spieth – 3
- Bubba Watson – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
However, without true long-term, fully segmented strokes gained data, we can’t model out the fits. That is changing though.
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It’s important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- Molinari, Francesco: 1.539
- Wiesberger, Bernd: 1.262
- Johnson, Dustin: 0.951
- Watson, Bubba: 0.831
- Perez, Victor: 0.783
- Champ, Cameron: 0.438
- Kokrak, Jason: 0.423
- Johnson, Zach: 0.408
- Westwood, Lee: 0.352
- Koepka, Brooks: 0.331
Here are the underperformers:
- Sugrue, James: -1.76
- Kang, Sung: -1.687
- Willett, Danny: -1.56
- Taylor, Nick: -1.455
- Leishman, Marc: -1.079
- Homa, Max: -1.058
- Walker, Jimmy: -0.989
- McDowell, Graeme: -0.938
- Mickelson, Phil: -0.754
- Woodland, Gary: -0.712
We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player’s relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!
This week’s model
Also, we’ve updated our tools comparing players’ strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2020 Masters DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I like can buy all of them with the right argument. But I love DJ and Bryson, really like Rahm and JT, am sort of so-so on Rory at this price point.
We have 19 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. My A-tier picks are Xander, Brooks, Hatton and Reed. I LOVE Wolff, Bubba, Adam Scott and Finau, just a touch below. Hideki Matsuyama will get more eyes after Houston, and he deserves them.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Scottie Scheffler, Louis Oosthuizen. Have to consider Sungjae. Cameron Smith may be the ultimate sleeper here.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range, and we have a lot of the field in this range. Jason Kokrak! Lanto Griffin!
A sample Masters DraftKings GPP lineup
This would be one of many this week
- Xander Schauffele – $9,800
- Bubba Watson – $9,000
- Tony Finau – $8,800
- Matthew Wolff – $8,500
- Cameron Smith – $7,300
- Lanto Griffin – $6,600