Each week, including this week’s 2020 Vivint Houston Open, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)]
To see our hidden picks and weekly model, join Forebucks!
For just $50 for 12 months or for free with a qualifying sportsbook deposit, Forebucks members get access to our winning weekly PGA Tour event model, in-depth DraftKings picks, searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present and top-15 PGA Tour trends, as well exclusive members-only content.
You’ll also have access to our course fit modeling, Quality Stokes Gained data, course demand insights, as well individual access to fantasy expert Ryan Ballengee for your unique questions.
2020 Vivint Houston Open DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Stewart Cink – 2 – T-12 Sanderson Farms, T-4 Bermuda Championship
- Wyndham Clark – 2 – T-13 Shriners Open, P-2 Bermuda Championship
- Lanto Griffin – 2 – T-7 CJ Cup, T-11 Zozo Championship
- Russell Henley – 2 – T-3 CJ Cup, T-4 Zozo Championship
- Denny McCarthy – 2 – T-6 Sanderson Farms, T-4 Bermuda Championship
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We’re looking at players with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five years, even though we have a new course this week.
- Russell Henley – 3
- Beau Hossler – 2
- Jordan Spieth – 2
- Henrik Stenson – 2
- Michael Thompson – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
However, with a new, untested host course this week, we can’t model it.
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It’s important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- Huh, John: 2.322
- Molinari, Francesco: 1.628
- Kim, Michael: 1.346
- Hahn, James: 1.332
- Westwood, Lee: 1.247
- Johnson, Dustin: 0.93
- Laird, Martin: 0.917
- McCarthy, Denny: 0.893
- Tway, Kevin: 0.887
- Bradley, Keegan: 0.881
Here are the underperformers:
- McDowell, Graeme: -1.865
- Kang, Sung: -1.816
- Stadler, Kevin: -1.77
- Homa, Max: -1.656
- Willett, Danny: -1.56
- Garnett, Brice: -1.045
- Trainer, Martin: -1.012
- Gay, Brian: -1.002
- Taylor, Vaughn: -0.973
- Points, D.A.: -0.971
We also have a new tool which looks at SG T2G over the last 30 tournaments and a player’s relative variance, showing you which players are the most consistent from week to week. Check it out!
This week’s model
Also, we’ve updated our tools comparing players’ strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2020 Vivint Houston Open DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I like Finau, Hatton and Hideki at top-line players, with Finau my favorite.
We have 18 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. Henley, Hovland, Scott, Lanto, Doc, Conners, Harman are my favorites. James Hahn is potentially a great flier.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. HV3, Ventura (especially on a longer course), Noren, EVR, Streelman, Tringale, and, of course, Denny and JT Poston. Phil? I won’t, but why not based on his PGA Tour Champions run. Keegan Bradley is on a good little run, and Russell Knox seems to have found something. Adam Schenk is a typical good pick, along with Harry Higgs. Ollie Schniederjans modeled surprisingly well last week, but he’s 82nd this week. Maybe worth a gamble.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range, and we have a lot of the field in this range. Mark Hubbard, Maverick McNealy, Brian Stuard and Tom Hoge would be names I’d endorse.
My Vivint Houston Open DraftKings GPP lineup
- Tony Finau – $10,900
- Lanto Griffin – $8,900
- Denny McCarthy – $7,900
- Alex Noren – $7,800
- Keegan Bradley – $7,200
- Russell Knox – $7,200