How to pick the most consistent DFS players using variance
Fantasy Golf & Golf Betting Featured Forebucks

How to pick the most consistent DFS players using variance



I was watching the Scottish Championship on the European Tour on Thursday, and they were interviewing eventual winner Adrian Otaegui after he opened with a tournament-leading 10-under 62 at Fairmont St. Andrews. Otaegui was telling the interviewer how he felt a good round and a great performance had been coming, even though his finishes and scores didn't necessarily indicate it was imminent.

Always looking for an edge and a better way to look at players, I wondered what kind of markers we might be able to find for players who are on the come -- even if their results aren't showing it.

The best single statistic we have available is something we already track. We compare a player's average strokes gained tee-to-green per round in the prior 50 PGA Tour events to the same measure in the prior 10 PGA Tour events. This gives us an indication if a player is trending above or below their long-term baseline performance in the one stat that can really tell us if a player is ready to breakout.

However, averages are problematic from a statistical point of view, particularly with a relatively small sample size and the possibility of erratic changes in values in the data set. We typically see some pretty dramatic ranges in strokes gained tee-to-green from event to event, for a variety of reasons. Averaging out that data creates a comparison point between players, but it doesn't tell us the players who are more consistent from event to event, course to course, grass to grass, field to field.

That's why we should be using long-term variance to give us a better clue as to the best players on Tour in terms of consistency.

To see our hidden picks and weekly model, join Forebucks!

For just $50 for 12 months or for free with a qualifying sportsbook deposit, Forebucks members get access to our winning weekly PGA Tour event model, in-depth DraftKings picks, searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present and top-15 PGA Tour trends, as well exclusive members-only content.

You'll also have access to our course fit modeling, Quality Stokes Gained data, course demand insights, as well individual access to fantasy expert Ryan Ballengee for your unique questions.

BECOME A MEMBER NOW

About the author

Avatar

Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for over a decade, working for NBC Sports, Golf Channel, Yahoo Sports and SB Nation. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He used to be a good golfer.

Ballengee can be reached by email at ryan[at]thegolfnewsnet.com

Ryan occasionally links to merchants of his choosing, and GNN may earn a commission from sales generated by those links. See more in GNN's affiliate disclosure.

For all of our latest deals, see our GNN Deals site!