Each week, including this week’s 2020 CJ Cup at Shadow Creek, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)]
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2020 CJ Cup at Shadow Creek DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Adam Long – 2 – T-13 US Open, T-5 Corales Puntacana
- Xander Schauffele – 2 – 2nd Tour Championship, 5th US Open
- Justin Thomas – 2 – 3rd Tour Championship, T-8 US Open
- Matthew Wolff – 2 – 2nd US Open, P-2 Shriners Open
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are the players with multiple top-15 finishes in the event in the last five times it was played:
- Byeong Hun An – 2
- Rafa Cabrera Bello – 2
- Jason Day – 2
- Tyrrell Hatton – 2
- Ryan Palmer – 2
- Ian Poulter – 2
- Cameron Smith – 3
- Justin Thomas – 2
- Gary Woodland – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
However, with Shadow Creek hosting in a one-off event, that’s not plausible.
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It’s important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- Wolff, Matthew: 1.112
- Bradley, Keegan: 1.012
- Johnson, Dustin: 0.93
- Herman, Jim: 0.865
- Watson, Bubba: 0.594
- Kokrak, Jason: 0.524
- Frittelli, Dylan: 0.517
- Oosthuizen, Louis: 0.468
- Higgs, Harry: 0.41
- Koepka, Brooks: 0.357
Here are the underperformers:
- Kang, Sung: -2.068
- Taylor, Nick: -1.661
- Leishman, Marc: -1.392
- Rose, Justin: -0.902
- Lee, Danny: -0.759
- Ancer, Abraham: -0.692
- Fowler, Rickie: -0.665
- Day, Jason: -0.556
- Fleetwood, Tommy: -0.498
- Werenski, Richy: -0.468
This week’s model
Also, we’ve updated our tools comparing players’ strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2020 CJ Cup at Shadow Creek DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and I think they all can work, but Xander and Wolff feel like the best plays. I’m curious how long Wolff can keep up his run.
We have 19 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. Cantlay, Hatton, Berger, Fleetwood, Hovland, Oosthuizen, Ancer.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Woodland, Niemann, Harman and Horschel would be my looks.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range, and we have a lot of the field in this range. Adam Long, Kevin Na and Mac Hughes are worth the play. Kokrak could be a huge value.
My CJ Cup at Shadow Creek DraftKings GPP lineup
- Patrick Cantlay – $9,800
- Tommy Fleetwood – $9,100
- Louis Oosthuizen – $8,500
- Abraham Ancer – $8,200
- Billy Horschel – $7,200
- Jason Kokrak – $7,000