Each week, including this week’s 2020 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)]
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2020 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Stewart Cink – 2 – WIN Safeway Open, T-12 Sanderson Farms
- Bryson DeChambeau – 2 – T-12 Tour Championship, WIN US Open
- Harris English – 2 – T-12 Tour Championship, 4th US Open
- Tony Finau – 2 – T-7 Tour Championship, T-8 US Open
- James Hahn – 2 – T-9 Safeway Open, T-6 Corales Puntacana
- Charley Hoffman – 2 – T-14 Corales Puntacana, T-6 Sanderson Farms
- Tyler McCumber – 2 – 2nd Corales Puntacana, T-6 Sanderson Farms
- Kristoffer Ventura – 2 – T-7 Safeway Open, T-6 Sanderson Farms
- Will Zalatoris – 2 – T-6 US Open, T-8 Corales Puntacana
- Xinjun Zhang – 2 – T-14 Safeway Open, T-11 Corales Puntacana
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are the players with multiple top-15 finishes in the event in the last five times it was played:
- Patrick Cantlay – 3
- Bryson DeChambeau – 3
- Chesson Hadley – 2
- Patton Kizzire – 2
- Luke List – 2
- Denny McCarthy – 2
- Ryan Moore – 2
- Kevin Na – 2
- Pat Perez – 2
- Webb Simpson – 2
- Cameron Smith – 2
- Aaron Wise – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Here’s our breakdown for this week:
Tee to Green: 65%
Off the Tee: 15%
Around the Green: 18%
Some fits include:
Strokes Gained T2G Trends
It’s important when looking at current form to see which players are overperforming and underperforming their long-term trends (last 50 tournaments) compared to short-term trends (last 10 tournaments).
Here are the overperformers:
- Cink, Stewart: 1.272
- McCarthy, Denny: 1.145
- Kim, Michael: 1.13
- Villegas, Camilo: 1.018
- Stanley, Kyle: 0.903
- Perez, Pat: 0.882
- Tway, Kevin: 0.88
- Watney, Nick: 0.819
- Hahn, James: 0.816
- McCumber, Tyler: 0.803
Here are the underperformers:
- DeChambeau, Bryson: -0.539
- Armour, Ryan: -0.553
- Jones, Matt: -0.57
- Niemann, Joaquin: -0.584
- Lee, Kyoung-Hoon: -0.607
- Pan, C.T.: -0.607
- Ancer, Abraham: -0.656
- Na, Kevin: -0.693
- Lashley, Nate: -0.699
- Brown, Scott: -0.727
- Merritt, Troy: -0.798
- Sabbatini, Rory: -0.83
- Swafford, Hudson: -0.963
This week’s model
Also, we’ve updated our tools comparing players’ strokes gained by course length and par, as well strokes gained putting by grass!
2020 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have four players in this group, and I think they all can work, to be honest. I like Webb and Tony to save a little cash.
We have 21 players in this group, and this is where we want to make a lineup. Morikawa, English, Wolff, Scheffler, Im, Garcia, Ancer, Will Zalatoris, Cameron Davis.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Doc Redman, Cam Smith, Charley Hoffman, Denny, maybe a flier on Aaron Wise, Sam Burns, Stewart Cink and CH3. Joel Dahmen is always good. Kristoffer Ventura, James Hahn, Luke List are names I also like on the edge.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range, and we have a lot of the field in this range. Brian Stuard, Peter Malnati and Xinjun Zhang are worth a look.
My Shriners Hospitals for Children Open DraftKings GPP lineup
- Harris English – $9,700
- Matthew Wolff – $9,600
- Doc Redman – $7,900
- Cameron Smith – $7,800
- Denny McCarthy – $7,700
- Kristoffer Ventura – $7,100