Each week, including this week’s 2020 The Northern Trust, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2020 The Northern Trust preview
This week is the final regular season event on the PGA Tour. The Wyndham is a great event, played on a classic Ross in Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, N.C. It’s Bermudagrass everything, if you’re the kind of person who thinks that matters to pros. There’s less pressure this year because every player keeps their status into next season, but it’s still a dramatic event to determine the playoff top 125.
2020 The Northern Trust DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Daniel Berger – 2 – 2nd WGC FedEx St. Jude, T-13 PGA Championship
- Jason Day – 4 – T-7 Workday Charity Open, 4th Memorial, T-6 WGC FedEx St. Jude, T-4 PGA Championship
- Tony Finau – 3 – T-8 Memorial, T-3 3M Open, T-4 PGA Championship
- Matt Fitzpatrick – 2 – T-3 Memorial, T-6 WGC FedEx St. Jude
- Russell Henley – 2 – T-7 Workday Charity Open, T-9 Wyndham Championship
- Billy Horschel – 3 – T-7 Workday Charity Open, T-13 Memorial, 2nd Wyndham Championship
- Dustin Johnson – 2 – T-12 WGC FedEx St. Jude, 2nd PGA Championship
- Si Woo Kim – 2 – T-13 PGA Championship, 3rd Wyndham Championship
- Collin Morikawa – 2 – WIN Workday Charity Open, WIN PGA Championship
- Ryan Palmer – 2 – 2nd Memorial, T-15 WGC FedEx St. Jude
- Jon Rahm – 2 – WIN Memorial, T-13 PGA Championship
- Patrick Reed – 3 – T-10 Memorial, T-12 PGA Championship, T-9 Wyndham Championship
- Xander Schauffele – 4 – T-14 Workday Charity Open, T-13 Memorial, T-6 WGC FedEx St. Jude, T-10 PGA Championship
- Scottie Scheffler – 2 – T-15 WGC FedEx St. Jude, T-4 PGA Championship
- Webb Simpson – 2 – T-12 WGC FedEx St. Jude, T-3 Wyndham Championship
- Justin Thomas – 2 – 2nd Workday Charity Open, WIN WGC FedEx St. Jude
- Matthew Wolff – 2 – T-12 3M Open, T-4 PGA Championship
- Xinjun Zhang – 2 – T-10 Memorial, T-12 3M Open
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-15 finishes in this event in the last five years it was played at this venue as the Dell Technologies Championship.
No one has more than two in the last four years of the event, so there’s no much love here.
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
Using TPC Boston as our course, here’s our breakdown:
Tee to Green: 65%
Off the Tee: 17%
Around the Green: 14%
Some fits include:
2020 The Northern Trust DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and I think you can look at all six and find something to feel good about here. But I like JT, Bryson and Morikawa most.
We have 18 players in this group, and this is typically where you really make your team. Xander, Webb, Jason Day, Reed, Berger, Finau, Scott, Scheffler and Fitzpatrick. Build off of these guys.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Horschel, Wolff, Si Woo (on a heater), Sungjae (he’s back), English, Doc Redman, Ryan Palmer, Adam Hadwin, Joel Dahmen. We don’t need many in this range.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. Sam Burns, Denny McCarthy, Brian Harman, Mark Hubbard, Talor Gooch, Scott Stallings.
My The Northern Trust DraftKings GPP lineup
- Xander Schauffele – $9,700
- Jason Day – $9,300
- Tony Finau – $8,800
- Billy Horschel – $7,900
- Sungjae Im – $7,700
- Mark Hubbard – $6,600