Each week, including this week’s 2020 RBC Heritage, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2020 RBC Heritage preview
Last week was very enjoyable, and now we get to enjoy Harbour Town. There’s a stacked field, larger than normal, with a lot of returning greats and horses-for-courses.
2020 RBC Heritage DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Abraham Ancer – 2 – T-12 WGC Mexico, T-14 Colonial
- Daniel Berger – 2 – T-4 The Honda Classic, WIN Colonial
- Joel Dahmen – 2 – T-5 Genesis Invitational, T-5 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Bryson DeChambeau – 4 – T-5 Genesis Invitational, 2nd WGC-Mexico, 4th Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-3 Colonial
- Tyrrell Hatton – 2 – T-6 WGC Mexico, WIN Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Talor Gooch – 2 – T-10 Genesis Invitational, T-13 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Sungjae Im – 3 – WIN The Honda Classic, 3rd Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-10 Colonial
- Sung Kang – 2 – 2nd Genesis Invitational, T-9 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Kyoung-hoon Lee – 2 – T-13 Genesis Open, T-14 Puerto Rico Open
- Hideki Matsuyama – 2 – T-5 Genesis Open, T-6 WGC Mexico
- Rory McIlroy – 3 – T-5 Genesis Invitational, 5th WGC-Mexico, T-5 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Collin Morikawa – 2 – T-9 Arnold Palmer Invitational, P-2 Colonial
- Patrick Reed – 3 – WIN WGC-Mexico, T-15 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-7 Colonial
- Xander Schauffele – 2 – T-14 WGC Mexico, T-3 Colonial
- Justin Thomas – 2 – T-6 WGC Mexico, T-10 Colonial
- Gary Woodland – 2 – T-12 WGC-Mexico, T-8 The Honda Classic
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-15 finishes in this event in the last five years it was played.
- Bryson DeChambeau – 2
- Luke Donald – 3
- Branden Grace – 3
- Bill Haas – 2
- Si Woo Kim – 2
- Kevin Kisner – 3
- Russell Knox – 2
- Matt Kuchar – 4
- Kevin Na – 2
- Ian Poulter – 3
- Webb Simpson – 2
- Kevin Streelman – 2
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
This week, here’s the breakdown:
Tee to Green: 64%
Off the Tee: 16%
Around the Green: 14%
Fits could include:
2020 RBC Heritage DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have six players in this group, and I think you should look at Bryson and Morikawa, but they both feel expensive. JT is a good pick, but he’s a budget buster.
We have 15 players in this group, and this is where you really make your team. Sungjae every week. Hideki, yes! Webb and Rose look good in the model. Berger is a good choice. Spieth likes here but is too expensive. Woodland is a yes. Kuchar is THE horse for course. Finau is a great pick, too. Tyrrell Hatton is on the come.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Snedeker, Dahmen, Poulter, Horschel, Matty Fitz are our names here. Scheffler should do well here, too. Jason Kokrak isn’t really priced right, but he should do well enough. Maverick McNealy, Bud Cauley, Rory Sabbatini and Adam Hadwin are great names.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. Kevin Streelman, Harry Higgs and Erik Van Rooyen are our favorites.
My RBC Heritage DraftKings lineup
- Hideki Matsuyama – $9,500
- Patrick Reed – $8,800
- Gary Woodland – $8,400
- Tony Finau – $8,200
- Ian Poulter – $7,600
- Brandt Snedeker – $7,500