Each week, including this week’s 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2020 Charles Schwab Challenge preview
Well, it’s been a while! I’m excited to be able to talk about PGA Tour golf again, though this week is unique and will be different than what we expect.
Colonial has its best-ever field, a stacked cluster of 36 top-50 players and a major-like feel. There are lots of names making their first — or first in a while — appearances, and there are some horses for this course. I think course history deserves more of a look than our model shows, but a flight to safety is a good thing.
2020 Charles Schwab Challenge DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Daniel Berger – 2 – T-5 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-4 The Honda Classic
- Joel Dahmen – 3 – T-14 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-5 Genesis Invitational, T-5 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Bryson DeChambeau – 3 – T-5 Genesis Invitational, 2nd WGC-Mexico, 4th Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Talor Gooch – 2 – T-10 Genesis Invitational, T-13 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Max Homa – 2 – T-14 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-5 Genesis Invitational
- Sungjae Im – 2 – WIN The Honda Classic, 3rd Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Sung Kang – 2 – 2nd Genesis Invitational, T-9 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Kyoung-hoon Lee – 2 – T-13 Genesis Open, T-14 Puerto Rico Open
- Rory McIlroy – 3 – T-5 Genesis Invitational, 5th WGC-Mexico, T-5 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Maverick McNealy – 2 – T-5 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-11 The Honda Classic
- Kevin Na – 2 – T-14 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-9 WGC-Mexico
- Matthew NeSmith – 2 – T-11 AT&T Pebble Beach, T-6 Puerto Rico Open
- Patrick Reed – 2 – WIN WGC-Mexico, T-15 Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Gary Woodland – 2 – T-12 WGC-Mexico, T-8 The Honda Classic
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-15 finishes in this event in the last five years it was played.
- Bill Haas – 2
- Brian Harman – 2
- Charley Hoffman – 2
- Chris Kirk – 3
- Kevin Kisner – 2
- Matt Kuchar – 2
- Danny Lee – 3
- Kevin Na – 3
- Ryan Palmer – 2
- Jon Rahm – 2
- Rory Sabbatini – 2
- Webb Simpson – 2
- Jordan Spieth – 4
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
This week, here’s the breakdown:
Tee to Green: 65%
Off the Tee: 14%
Around the Green: 14%
Fits could include:
2020 Charles Schwab Challenge DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have four players in this group, and I think you can look at Rory or Rahm. I love DeChambeau, but he’s too expensive.
We have 20 players in this group (more than usual), and this is where you really make your team. Simpson, Im, Morikawa, Fowler, Rose, Finau feel like gimmes. Scheffler and Spieth are overpriced but deserve a look in this range. Our model loves Gary Woodland here.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Kevin Na deserves a higher price. I like Maverick McNealy, Billy Horschel and Daniel Berger. Joel Dahmen is a good play. Have to look at Harris English, Danny Lee and Adam Hadwin. Vik Hovland has played well in the layoff.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. Matt NeSmith continues to get love from our model. Harry Higgs could be a stud in the making. Our model loves Bud Cauley. Rafa Cabrera Bello is cheap relative to his betting odds.
My Charles Schwab Challenge DraftKings lineup
- Rickie Fowler – $9,400
- Collin Morikawa – $9,100
- Tony Finau – $8,700
- Daniel Berger – $7,700
- Kevin Na – $7,600
- Adam Hadwin – $7,300