Each week, including this week’s 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2020 WGC-Mexico Championship preview
The WGC-Mexico Championship is here, and it’s time for a little crazy golf at elevation in Mexico City. The ball goes very far at Club de Golf Chapultepec, with a 10 percent bump in distance. There are some horses for courses here, like Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood. There are plenty of foreign-based players who are coming here for the free cash and points. It’s quite a week.
2020 WGC-Mexico Championship DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Tony Finau – 3 – T-14 The American Epress, T-6 Farmers Insurance Open, P-2 Phoenix Open
- Rory McIlroy – 2 – T-3 Farmers Insurance Open, T-5 Genesis Invitational
- Jon Rahm – 2 – 2nd Farmers Insurance Open, T-9 Phoenix Open
- Bubba Watson – 2 – T-6 Farmers Insurance Open, 3rd Phoenix Open
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. Here are players with multiple top-15 finishes in this event in the last five years it was played.
- Paul Casey – 2
- Tommy Fleetwood – 2
- Sergio Garcia – 3
- Tyrrell Hatton – 2
- Dustin Johnson – 3
- Rory McIlroy – 2
- Jordan Spieth – 2
- Justin Thomas – 3
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
This week, here’s the breakdown:
Tee to Green: 66%
Off the Tee: 19%
Around the Green: 12%
Fits could include:
2020 WGC-Mexico Championship DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and I think McIlroy, DJ and JT are great picks here. Hideki is a little expensive, but I like his game here.
We have 16 players in this group, and this is where you really make your team. Webb, Adam Scott, Xander, Fleetwood, Bryson, Sergio, Morikawa and, yes, Spieth, are my guys this week.
DraftKings typically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Scottie Scheffler is dirt cheap here. Billy Horschel and Kevin Na are decent. Ben An deserves a look. Rafa Cabrera Bello is super cheap this week. Sungjae Im deserves a look, but I’m not in love with his current form.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range. I want Shugo on my team. Matt Wallace and Erik Van Rooyen too. Jazz has been playing so well in Asia that he’s hard to ignore despite my model not liking him. Christian Bezuidenhout is absolutely worth a look. Lucas Glover, too.
My WGC-Mexico Championship DraftKings lineup
- Tommy Fleetwood – $9,200
- Bryson DeChambeau – $9,000
- Collin Morikawa – $8,500
- Jordan Spieth – $8,000
- Rafa Cabrera Bello – $7,600
- Byeong Hun An – $7,400