2019 Race to Dubai scenarios: Who can still win the season-long race at the DP World Tour Championship?
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2019 Race to Dubai scenarios: Who can still win the season-long race at the DP World Tour Championship?



At this week's season-ending 2019 DP World Tour Championship in Dubai, just five players in the 50-man field can win the season-long Race to Dubai and the $2 million bonus that comes with the honor.

Top-ranked Bernd Wiesberger carries a lead of 722.6 points over second-ranked Tommy Fleetwood heading into the no-cut event at Jumeirah Golf Estates' Earth Course.

Wiesberger will win the Race to Dubai if he finishes no worse than solo second. There are other scenarios, of course, in which he can win the season-long points race, but he would preclude any other player from taking the top spot from him if he finishes solo second or better.

Fleetwood can win the Race to Dubai in five different scenarios. The easiest would be to win, but he would need Wiesberger to finish worse than solo second. Fleetwood, however, cannot finish worse than a three-way tie for second place and still win the Race to Dubai.

Jon Rahm can win the Race to Dubai with at least a two-way tie for second if other players finish in minimum positions on the leaderboard.

Shane Lowry can win the Race to Dubai with at least a solo second-place finish in the DP World Tour Championship, but he would rely on the finishes of Wiesberger and potentially Fleetwood.

Matt Fitzpatrick can win the Race to Dubai with a win this week. He is the only contender to need Wiesberger and Fleetwood to both finish in specific places on the leaderboard to win the season-long race.

This season, the Race to Dubai bonus pool remains $5 million, with the winner getting $2 million and the remainder of the top five sharing in the spoils.

2019 DP World Tour Championship scenarios to win the Race to Dubai

No. 1 -- Bernd Wiesberber

  • Bernd Wiesberger wins the Race to Dubai if he wins the DP World Tour Championship, OR
  • Wiesberger wins the Race to Dubai if he finishes solo second, OR
  • Has a reasonable chance of winning with a top-three finish
  • Can finish as low as 42nd place and still win

No. 2 -- Tommy Fleetwood

  • Tommy Fleetwood can win the Race to Dubai if he wins the DP World Tour Championship and Bernd Wiesberger finishes worse than solo second, OR
  • Fleetwood can win the Race to Dubai if he finishes solo second, Wiesberger finishes worse than a three-way tie for third place, and neither Rahm or Lowry win, OR
  • Fleetwood can win the Race to Dubai if he finishes in a two-way tie for second place, Wiesberger finishes worse than a two-way tie for seventh, and neither Rahm, Lowry or Fitzpatrick win, OR
  • Fleetwood can win the Race to Dubai if he finishes in a three-way tie for second, Wiesberger finishes worse than solo 15th place, and neither Rahm, Lowry or Fitzpatrick win, OR
  • Fleetwood can win the Race to Dubai if he finishes in a four-way tie for second, Wiesberger finishes worse than solo 42nd place, and neither Rahm, Lowry or Fitzpatrick win.

No. 3 -- Jon Rahm

  • Jon Rahm can win the Race to Dubai if he wins the DP World Tour Championship and Wiesberger finishes lower than solo second, OR
  • Rahm can win the Race to Dubai if he finishes solo second, Wiesberger finishes worse than a two-way tie for fifth place, and neither Fleetwood, Lowry or Fitzpatrick win, OR
  • Rahm can win the Race to Dubai if he finishes in a two-way tie for second, Wiesberger finishes worse than solo 21st, and neither Fleetwood, Lowry or Fitzpatrick win

No. 4 -- Shane Lowry

  • Shane Lowry can win the Race to Dubai if he wins the DP World Tour Championship and Wiesberger finishes worse than a two-way tie for second
  • Lowry can win the Race to Dubai if he finishes solo second, Wiesberger finishes worse than solo 19th, and neither Fleetwood, Rahm or Fitzpatrick win

No. 5 -- Matthew Fitzpatrick

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick can win the Race to Dubai if he wins the DP World Tour Championship, Wiesberger finishes worse than a two-way tie for fourth place AND Fleetwood finishes worse than solo second

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