Each week, including this week’s 2019 Genesis Open, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()] [/s2If] [s2If is_user_logged_in()]
2019 Genesis Open preview
The PGA Tour is in Los Angeles this week, at Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Open. This is up there with the best fields of the year to this point, with Tiger Woods headlining as host. Most every top player is in the field (save for Brooks Koepka and Justin Rose), and Bubba Watson defends as he looks for a fourth title in Pacific Palisades.
We have to think of this course as a ballstriker’s haven. Putting on this course is difficult. It’s grainy and subtle. So getting lots of good opportunities to make putts is the best chance of scoring here.
2019 Genesis Open DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Sungjae Im – 2 – T-12 Desert Classic, T-7 Phoenix Open
- Jon Rahm – 4 – 6th Desert Classic, T-6 Farmers Insurance Open, T-10 Phoenix Open
- Chez Reavie – 2 – 3rd Sony Open, T-4 Phoenix Open
- Cameron Smith – 2 – T-9 Farmers Insurance Open, T-15 Phoenix Open
- Michael Thompson – 2 – T-9 Desert Classic, T-13 Farmers Insurance Open
Event Finish History
We like to look for potential horses for courses with most PGA Tour events, particularly those with regular host courses. We look at the last five years to see which players finish in the top 15 multiple times in that stetch.
- Sangmoon Bae – 2
- Charley Hoffman – 2
- Dustin Johnson – 4
- Martin Laird – 3
- Hideki Matsuyama – 2
- Kevin Na – 2
- Adam Scott – 2
- Jordan Spieth – 3
- Brendan Steele – 2
- Cameron Tringale – 2
- Bubba Watson – 4
It seems to me the best way to use Strokes Gained data is to give a sense of a course fit. My working theory is a player is a course fit — or a potential course fit, at least — if their Strokes Gained breakout when they finish in the top 25 is similar to the average for top-25 finishers at this week’s event.
We are back to one-course tournaments for the foreseeable future, which is great. We can use our model to help us out. Here’s what the demand is for this week:
Tee to Green: 64%
Off the Tee: 15%
Around the Green: 17%
Some potential fits include:
- Jimmy Walker
- Branden Grace
- Billy Horschel
- Andrew Putnam
- Adam Hadwin
- Martin Laird
- Marc Leishman
- Kevin Na
- Phil Mickelson
2019 Genesis Open DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have five players in this group, and the right play here would be either Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm. DeChambeau hasn’t showed he’s played well here yet.
We have 18 players in this group, and I like a lot of players in this range. Bubba and Phil are the appropriate plays at the high end of the range. Avoid Tiger at Riviera. Leishan and Casey are great choices, as is Cameron Smith. I would avoid Sergio. Branden Grace is a good fit.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. Charles Howell III is a solid pick, as are Adam Hadwin, Sungjae Im and Andrew Putnam. Kevin Na is a good choice and well-rested. Keegan Bradley is a big steal at $7,300.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range, but I think you can stack your team with guys in the $7,000s. I like Brian Gay and Sangmoon Bae, though Bae is a total horse-for-course tip.
My primary DraftKings lineup
- Jon Rahm – $10,400
- Paul Casey – $8,800
- Cameron Smith – $8,400
- Andrew Putnam – $7,500
- Keegan Bradley – $7,300
- Joel Dahmen – $7,000