Each week, including this week’s 2018 RBC Heritage, Golf News Net offers daily fantasy (DFS) golf advice, picks, lineups and tips for DraftKings PGA Tour games, scrutinizing the pricing model and looking for players who will perform best in both guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events and cash games.[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
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2018 RBC Heritage preview
We’re at Hilton Head, baby! This week, Harbour Town Golf Links hosts the RBC Heritage, where Wesley Bryan defends his title. This Pete Dye-Jack Nicklaus design is dramatically different than what the players experience at Augusta National in so many ways. However, the history of this tournament shows players who comepte the week prior in Georgia tend to win this week.
And then there are Luke Donald and Matt Kuchar, who should be on your radar this week as ultimate horses-for-courses.
2018 RBC Heritage DraftKings picks
Each week, we’ll offer players in 3-5 buckets of pricing so as to offer some mix-and-matching with your lineups based on our recommendations.
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual, stroke-play PGA Tour events.
- Charley Hoffman – 2 – T-14 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-12 Masters
- Dustin Johnson – 2 – T-7 WGC-Mexico, T-10 Masters
- Grayson Murray – 2 – T-14 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-14 Houston Open
- Marc Leishman – 2 – T-7 Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-9 Masters
- Paul Casey – 3 – T-12 WGC-Mexico, WIN Valspar Championship, T-15 Masters
- Sean O’Hair – 2 – T-12 Valspar Championship, T-7 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Event Finish History
Here are the players who finished in the top 15 in this event in the last five years:
- Brian Harman – 2
- Charley Hoffman – 2
- Jason Kokrak – 2
- Jim Furyk – 2
- Kevin Kisner – 2
- Luke Donald – 5
- Matt Kuchar – 4
- Rory Sabbatini – 2
- Russell Knox – 3
- Webb Simpson – 2
- William McGirt – 3
Strokes Gained Trends
For the last couple of years, we’ve looked at salary trends in this section, telling you who might be undervalued given recent trends and who is overvalued relative to their full-season salaries. While that’s helpful in making decisions, we have that highlighted on its own.
Let’s talk about strokes gained here moving forward.
You’ll see more of this as we’ll start rolling out new historical data tools to help you pick winners each week.
I firmly believe every player is unique in how they approach golf, and their individual paths to success are also different. The path to success for each PGA Tour course is also different, and so we’re going to use historical data to make that case for us. I’m really excited about this project. It’s going to become GNN Plus Edge, which we announced at the end of 2017, and we’re bringing it to market soon. It’ll be an add-on to our existing GNN Plus membership, but I’m going to give every current GNN Plus member free access to the product through the end of this season once it’s all live. In the meantime, you’ll see a rolling out of refined tools and insights.
2018 RBC Heritage DraftKings recommendations
$10,000 and up
We have four players in this group, and I think you should really only consider Kuchar at this price point. The other players are great, but they don’t match decent form and course history like Kooch.
We have 14 players in this group. In this group, I really like Brian harman at $9,800, even if that’s high for him. Cameron Smith is practically a must-roster at $9,000 given the lack of value above him.
Kevin Kisner, Bryson DeChambeau and Adam Hadwin (UPDATE: he withdrew) all are excellent picks as well.
DraftKings basically breaks the rest of the field in half at the $7,000 mark. This is very much hit-or-miss territory.
Let’s target Russell Knox at $7,800 and Charley Hoffman at $7,700. Their form here is undervalued, and Hoffman isn’t getting much love for his good Masters run.
Luke Donald almost seems a must pick, but if you’re concerned because of his poor season, maybe look to Matt Fitzpatrick at $7,600.
Below or at $7,000
We’re looking for bargains in this range with a threat to top-10.
Kelly Kraft continues to be a huge value at this price range. He shouldn’t be $6,900.
Rory Sabbatini really intrigues me at $7,000. He’s played very well through the year, and he’s done OK here in the past.
My primary DraftKings lineup
- Brian Harman – $9,800
- Cameron Smith – $9,000
- Bryson DeChambeau – $8,300
- Charley Hoffman – $7,700
- Luke Donald – $7,700
- Jason Kokrak – $7,400