What do golf betting odds tell you about the probability a player will win?
Fantasy Golf

What do golf betting odds tell you about the probability a player will win?


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Whether you bet on golf or don't, you can use the information from golf betting odds tables to help you with your fantasy golf picks each week. You see, when you're looking at odds from a sportsbook, you're actually getting a clue into the implied probability something is going to happen.

The American style betting odds -- where +800 is 8-to-1, +2500 is 25-to-1 and so forth -- can be translated into implied probability that the sportsbook thinks applies to an event. For a golf tournament, bettors are typically looking at a moneyline for a player to win a tournament outright, though they could be looking at betting on an each-way bet (a golfer finishing, typically, inside the top six) or a matchups bet between two players in the same tournament over one or four rounds.

In this case, we're concerned with the moneyline for a player to win a tournament outright. Each week, there are anywhere from 1-4 pretty clear favorites on a tournament betting table, like those you'd find at NetBet Sport. Those players are usually around 10-to-1 (+1000) or less. Maybe 12-to-1 or less. However, you'll never see a favorite for a tournament with betting odds of even or worse, meaning you'd have to pay more than you'll get back in winnings. That means, as you well know, predicting a golf tournament is tough, and bettors get odds which reflect that difficulty.



For example, if a golf tournament betting favorite comes in at 5-to-1 (+500), the implication is that player, in the sportbook's view, has a 16.67 percent chance of winning the tournament. At 10-to-1, the book gives the player a 9.09 percent chance. At 15-to-1, the implied probability is 6.25 percent.

You can figure out implied probability for yourself using this equation:

Implied Probability = 100 / (Plus Moneyline Odds)

Golf betting odds: Odds converted to implied probability

  • +500 -- 16.67%
  • +600 -- 14.29%
  • +700 -- 12.50%
  • +800 -- 11.11%
  • +900 -- 10.00%
  • +1000 -- 9.09%
  • +1100 -- 8.33%
  • +1200 -- 7.69%
  • +1300 -- 7.14%
  • +1400 -- 6.67%
  • +1500 -- 6.25%
  • +1600 -- 5.88%
  • +1700 -- 5.56%
  • +1800 -- 5.26%
  • +1900 -- 5.00%
  • +2000 -- 4.76%
  • +2100 -- 4.55%
  • +2200 -- 4.35%
  • +2300 -- 4.17%
  • +2400 -- 4.00%
  • +2500 -- 3.85%
  • +2600 -- 3.70%
  • +2700 -- 3.57%
  • +2800 -- 3.45%
  • +2900 -- 3.33%
  • +3000 -- 3.23%
  • +3100 -- 3.13%
  • +3200 -- 3.03%
  • +3300 -- 2.94%
  • +3400 -- 2.86%
  • +3500 -- 2.78%
  • +3600 -- 2.70%
  • +3700 -- 2.63%
  • +3800 -- 2.56%
  • +3900 -- 2.50%
  • +4000 -- 2.44%
  • +4100 -- 2.38%
  • +4200 -- 2.33%
  • +4300 -- 2.27%
  • +4400 -- 2.22%
  • +4500 -- 2.17%
  • +4600 -- 2.13%
  • +4700 -- 2.08%
  • +4800 -- 2.04%
  • +4900 -- 2.00%
  • +5000 -- 1.96%

This is useful information, particularly for daily fantasy golf players. Sportsbooks generally have a good idea of their implied probability, and those numbers can be compared to reliable ownership projection models. If you're seeing projected ownership numbers higher than the implied probability of winning, perhaps you're looking at a player overvalued by DFS players. If you're seeing the opposite, where the implied probability is higher than the projected ownership, you may have a value on your hands.

Of course, all of these figures are based on good legwork that goes into determining the most likely outcomes for a golf tournament (or other sporting event). However, they're ultimately just educated guesses and are really best used at guideposts for your fantasy strategies. Sometimes, when making choices between players and lineups, your best asset is your instinct.

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Golf News Net

Golf News Net

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