Looking for 2017 AT&T Byron Nelson picks, either for betting or fantasy golf games like DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, Golf Channel or the PGA Tour?
We have your 2017 AT&T Byron Nelson rankings and expert picks, as we do each week of the PGA Tour season.
The AT&T Byron Nelson has a sneaky good field, with Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia and Brooks Koepka among the top players in the field. This is the last year at TPC Four Seasons, moving to Trinity Forest next year.
For those new to our weekly picks, we offer our top 10 players for free. GNN Plus members get additional analysis and research otherwise hidden to the general public, and that’s in addition to access to a searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present, top-15 PGA Tour trends and season-long DraftKings salary trends.
2017 AT&T Byron Nelson rankings: Top 10 picks
1. Dustin Johnson – Johnson finished T-12 at The Players despite not having his best stuff. That’s his best-ever finish in the event, which is something to note given his struggles there. Good record here.
2. Sergio Garcia – Garcia fell apart on Sunday at TPC Sawgrass after playing his way into contention on Saturday. He wasn’t even really fully into the tournament, but he’s the defending champ here and playing well overall.
3. Brooks Koepka – Brooks was the runner-up to Garcia here last year, and he really should have won. He did well at The Players, and he’s been coming along dating back to the Masters. Ripe for a win.
4. Jordan Spieth – Found the final Sunday group last year and faded to T-18. He’s been in contention here as a pro and as an amateur. Hometown event with his bag sponsor.
5. Jason Dufner – It’s a bit of a fall off after the top four or five players in the rankings. Dufner’s been cashing all season long, and he played well before running into a T-60 last week at Sawgrass.
6. Ryan Palmer – Palmer’s a good egg at this tournament, being it’s in the DFW. However, he did miss the cut last week at Players. Then again, top-11s in the three prior starts.
7. Charley Hoffman – Hoffman has a good record and in Texas in general. He can handle the wind well.
8. Matt Kuchar – Kuchar is one of the most consistent performers in this event, and he’s probably one of a handful of players sad to see TPC Four Seasons go. Struggled last week with a blow up at Sawgrass, but that can be forgiven.
9. Kevin Tway – I’ve really come around on Kevin Tway in recent weeks. He’s been on fire, stalking top-five finishes the last three starts. Love his length and he’s finally figuring out the PGA Tour.
10. Bud Cauley – On the opposite end of Tway’s length, Bud Cauley is playing great golf lately. Great golf. Had a run here last year.
My DraftKings lineup for this week:
- Jason Dufner – $8,800
- Charley Hoffman – $8,500
- Ryan Palmer – $8,200
- Bud Cauley – $7,800
- Kevin Tway – $7,700
- J.T. Poston – $7,300
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GNN Plus Research and Analysis
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five individual PGA Tour events.
- Brian Gay – 2 – T-6 RBC Heritage, T-6 Valero Texas Open
- Brooks Koepka – 2 – T-11 Masters, 2nd Valero Texas Open
- Bud Cauley – 2 – T-9 RBC Heritage, T-10 Valero Texas Open
- Dustin Johnson – 2 – T-2 Wells Fargo Championship, T-12 The Players
- Ian Poulter – 2 – T-11 RBC Heritage, T-2 The Players
- Kevin Tway – 2 – T-3 Valero Texas Open, T-5 Wells Fargo Championship
- Matt Kuchar – 2 – T-4 Masters, T-11 RBC Heritage
- Ryan Palmer – 2 – T-11 RBC Heritage, T-10 Valero Texas Open
- Smylie Kaufman – 2 – T-5 Wells Fargo Championship, T-12 The Players
- Sung Kang – 2 – T-11 RBC Heritage, T-6 Valero Texas Open
Event Finish History
Here are the players who finished in the top 15 at the AT&T Byron Nelson multiple times in the last five years:
- Charl Schwartzel – 2
- Charles Howell III – 2
- Charley Hoffman – 3
- Dustin Johnson – 3
- Gary Woodland – 2
- Graham DeLaet – 2
- Jason Day – 2
- Jason Dufner – 3
- Keegan Bradley – 2
- Marc Leishman – 3
- Matt Kuchar – 4
- Nick Watney – 2
- Robert Garrigus – 2
- Ryan Palmer – 3
- Scott Piercy – 2
- Tony Finau – 2
DraftKings salaries change from week to week, depending on field strength and size, as well a player’s recent record and their history on a course. It’s in looking at how a salary changes over time that we might get some clues as to players that could be a little overrated or underrated.
Here’s the list of players in the field playing $800 over their 2016-17 average salary (ranked least to most over average salary):
- Angel Cabrera
- Ollie Schniederjans
- Ryan Brehm
- Max Homa
- Charley Hoffman
- Tom Hoge
- Brett Drewitt
- Julian Etulain
- Jason Dufner
- D.A. Points
- Nicholas Lindheim
- Kevin Tway
- Tony Finau
- Sergio Garcia
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Brooks Koepka
Here are the players playing this week with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five PGA Tour events that re playing BELOW their average salary from the 2016-17 season:
- Ian Poulter
- Matt Kuchar
Success at TPC Four Seasons
TPC Four Seasons is much-maligned. It’s not that great of a course, and a lot of players stay away from the Nelson because of it. That’s why the move to Trinity Forest is bumped up a year. However, the D.A. Weibring-led re-design often plays in windy conditions, meaning that’s a key each week. There’s a fair amount of water in play that inspires a lot of laying up, which creates longer approach shots. Look at longer hitters and guys comfortable with mid-irons and above in their hands.