Welcome back to Golf News Net’s weekly fantasy golf rankings. Each week of the PGA Tour season, we’ll present our top fantasy golf picks for that week’s tournament and give fantasy golf and betting tips for DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s one-week fantasy leagues, daily fantasy golf lineups, Yahoo fantasy golf, Golf Channel fantasy golf and PGA Tour fantasy golf leagues.
The PGA Tour moves from Arizona back to California and onto the Monterey Peninsula for the 2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The event features a 72-hole professional tournament alongside a 72-hole pro-am competition on a three-course rotation of Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill and the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula Country Club.
We’ve got a good field, including defending champion Vaughn Taylor, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day and Jordan Spieth.
For those new to our weekly picks, we offer our top 10 players for free. GNN Plus members get additional analysis and research otherwise hidden to the general public, and that’s in addition to access to a searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present, top-15 PGA Tour trends and season-long DraftKings salary trends.
2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am rankings: Top 10 picks
1. Dustin Johnson — DJ is a stud at Pebble. One-fourth of his pro wins are here. Playing in the pro-am with the Great One is actually a good influence, in our opinion.
2. Jordan Spieth — Spieth has been on a top-10 tear. Now, he hasn’t been in the thick of it at the very end of a lot of those high finishes, but he’s lurking and hanging around. Struggled putting in Phoenix.
3. Jason Day — Day also has a sterling record here, and his, um, deliberate pace of play actually jibes really well with the brutal pace of this pro-am.
4. Phil Mickelson — Mickelson has hung around in the mix heading into Sunday each of the last two weeks. Needs a little push to fight for a win. Maybe remembering what happened with Vaughn Taylor will do it.
5. Patrick Reed — This just seems like an event Reed should win. He’s a great ballstriker. But maybe the schmoozing part is weird. Decent form of late.
6. Justin Rose — Rose has come out of the gates hot to start the year. Great efforts in Honolulu and at Torrey.
7. Webb Simpson — Webb has played well of late, with a couple of top-15s, including the playoff loss in Phoenix. Length isn’t an issue and putting shouldn’t kill him.
8. Jimmy Walker — This guy has five top-15s in this event in the last six years. How can you not like that? Well, two MCs in his last two events at places he loves.
9. Brandt Snedeker — Sneds is a winner here, and he loves playing in California. The T-9 at Torrey was encouraging after a shocking MC at Waialae.
10. Pat Perez — Perez would be ranked higher with a good record here, but he pulled out of PHX as a precaution with a shoulder tweak. Something to watch.
My DraftKings lineup for this week:
- Phil Mickelson – $9,300
- Justin Rose – $9,200
- Webb Simpson – $8,200
- Daniel Summerhays – $7,600
- Chris Kirk – $7,500
- Pat Perez – $7,300
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GNN Plus Research and Analysis
Recent PGA Tour Trends
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five PGA Tour events.
- Adam Hadwin – 2 – 2nd CareerBuilder Challenge, T-12 Phoenix Open
- Brandt Snedeker – 2 – T-13 Tournament of Champions, T-9 Farmers Insurance Open
- Chez Reavie – 2 – T-8 Sony Open, T-12 CareerBuilder Challenge
- J.J. Spaun – 2 – T-9 Farmers Insurance Open, T-4 Phoenix Open
- Jim Herman – 2 – T-12 Tournament of Champions, T-10 Sony Open
- Jordan Spieth – 3 – T-3 Tournament of Champions, 3rd Sony Open, T-9 Phoenix Open
- Justin Rose – 2 – 2nd Sony Open in Hawaii, T-4 Farmers Insurance Open
- Martin Laird – 2 – T-9 CareerBuilder Challenge, T-7 Phoenix Open
- Pat Perez – 2 – T-3 Tournament of Champions, T-4 Farmers Insurance Open
- Patrick Reed – 2 – T-6 Tournament of Champions, T-12 CareerBuilder Challenge
- Sean O’Hair – 2 – T-11 Sony Open, T-9 CareerBuilder Challenge
- Tony Finau – 2 – T-9 Tournament of Champions, T-4 Farmers Insurance Open
- Webb Simpson – 2 – T-13 Sony Open, P-2 Phoenix Open
Event Finish History
We’re also interested in the players in the field that have finished in the top 15 at the old Crosby Clambake multiple times in the last five years:
- Aaron Baddeley – 3
- Brandt Snedeker – 2
- Brendon Todd – 2
- Bryce Molder – 3
- Dustin Johnson – 3
- Hunter Mahan – 3
- J.B. Holmes – 3
- Jason Day – 3
- Jimmy Walker – 5
- Jordan Spieth – 2
- Nick Watney – 2
- Pat Perez – 2
- Phil Mickelson – 3
- Spencer Levin – 2
- Steven Bowditch – 2
Ideally, we want to identify players who are both playing well right now and have a good track record here. Our guys this week: Snedeker, Spieth, Perez.
DraftKings salaries change from week to week, depending on field strength and size, as well a player’s recent record and their history on a course. It’s in looking at how a salary changes over time that we might get some clues as to players that could be a little overrated or underrated.
Here’s the list of players in the field playing $1,000 over their 2016-17 average salary:
- Beau Hossler
- Mark Anderson
- Seamus Power
- Vijay Singh
- Richy Werenski
- Nicholas Lindheim
- Chez Reavie
- David Duval
- Kelly Kraft
- Sung Kang
- Brad Fritsch
- Jonas Blixt
- J.J. Spaun
- Steven Bowditch
Here are the players playing this week with multiple top-15 finishes in the last five PGA Tour events that re playing at least $500 BELOW their average salary from the 2016-17 season:
- Justin Rose
- Patrick Reed
- Tony Finau
Success at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula
This is a long week. You’ve got slow rounds, made slower by amateurs who want to putt out and make the pro-am cut, even if you don’t care. You’ve got to play on Poa, which is irritating. You’ve got three courses and luck of the draw on them. That all said, the targets on these courses is small, generally speaking. Like Phoenix, I love ballstrikers here. The closer you get the ball to the hole, the better, making shorter putts more palatable.