Welcome back to Golf News Net's weekly fantasy golf picks. Each week of the European Tour season, we'll present our top picks for that week's tournament and make recommendations for DraftKings' one-week fantasy leagues.
The European Tour heads to Dubai and the United Arab Emirates for the final event of the season, the DP World Tour Championship. The Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates hosts again as Henrik Stenson, Danny Willett, Alex Noren and Rory McIlroy all have a chance to win the season-long Race to Dubai.
Each week, we'll provide our top 10 picks and analysis, with our GNN Plus subscribers getting access to our full top-10 picks, our searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present, our top-15 finish chart and season-long trends on DraftKings valuations. They'll be available at your disposal as part of a growing set of tools to help in your research.
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2016 DP World Tour Championship top 10 fantasy golf picks
1. Rory McIlroy -- Owns this event and is playing great golf worldwide right now. No reason why he can't win this again and perhaps yet another Race to Dubai.
2. Henrik Stenson -- If not Rory, then Henrik. Stenson adores this event and is a rock here. Can lock up a Race to Dubai title this week.
3. Alex Noren -- Do you really want to bet against Alex Noren? He went from about 750th in the world a little over a year ago to ninth this week. What a rise.
4. Bernd Wiesberger -- Wisberger is at a huge discount this week in Dubai. He's been consistent all summer, no reason to think that stops now.
5. Sergio Garcia -- Garcia is ready to fly in for an easy payday on a course he loves. Worth a look.
6. Andy Sullivan -- Sullivan loves playing in Dubai, nearly won the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year. Had a strong week in Sun City.
7. Francesco Molinari -- Molinari, who won the Italian Open, is another horse-for-courses pick. Great record on the Earth Course.
8. Tyrrell Hatton -- Hatton has fallen off a little since his British Masters win, but he has a pair of top-15 finishes in this event, which portends well.
9. Louis Oosthuizen -- Sweet-swinging Louis isn't a perfect pick here or we'd rank him higher, but he has a killer record in this tournament. Not bad in Sun City.
10. Jeunghun Wang -- Wang has been solid in the Final Series, and, as best we can tell, he's very streaky.
My DraftKings team for this week:
1. Rory McIlroy - $12,500
2. Rafa Cabrera Bello - $8,100
3. Tommy Fleetwood - $7,800
4. Victor Dubuisson - $7,600
5. Nacho Elvira - $7,000
6. David Lipsky - $6,900
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five European Tour events. Here are the players in this week's field with the most top-15 finishes in the last five European Tour events:
- Alex Noren - 3 - WIN British Masters, T-12 WGC-HSBC Champions, WIN Nedbank Challenge
- Andy Sullivan - 2 - 2nd Portugal Masters, T-3 Nedbank Challenge
- Bernd Wiesberger - 2 - 2nd British Masters, 4th Turkish Airlines Open
- David Horsey - 2 - T-12 British Masters, T-2 Turkish Airlines Open
- David Lipsky - 2 - T-5 Portgual Masters, T-6 Turkish Airlines Open
- Henrik Stenson - 2 - T-2 WGC-HSBC Champions, 8th Nedbank Challenge
- Nacho Elvira - 2 - 9th Portugal Masters, 9th Turkish Airlines Open
- Jeunghun Wang - 2 - T-13 Turkish Airlines Open, 2nd Nedbank Challenge
- Mikko Ilonen - 2 - T-12 British Masters, T-10 Turkish Airlines Open
- Ricardo Gouveia - 2 - T-13 Turkish Airlines Open, T-3 Nedbank Challenge
- Tommy Fleetwood - 2 - T-4 British masters, T-14 Nedbank Challenge
- Tyrrell Hatton - 2 - T-9 British Masters, T-10 Turkish Airlines Open
We also want to look at players who have a good history in this tournament. Here are players with multiple top-15 finishes in the DP World Tour Championship in the last five years:
- Branden Grace - 3
- Charl Schwartzel - 3
- Francesco Molinari - 3
- Henrik Stenson - 3
- Joost Luiten - 2
- Louis Oosthuizen - 3
- Martin Kaymer - 2
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 2
- Robert Karlsson - 2
- Rory McIlroy - 5
- Sergio Garcia - 3
- Shane Lowry - 2
- Tyrrell Hatton - 2
- Victor Dubuisson - 3
Ideally, we want to find players who are both playing well now and have a history of playing well at this championship. Our guys: Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Tyrrell Hatton
DraftKings salaries change from week to week, depending on field strength and size, as well a player's recent record and their history on a course. It's in looking at how a salary changes over time that we might get some clues as to players that could be a little overrated or underrated.
We're looking here at the players who are salaried at $500 or more than their season average in a somewhat weak, undervalued field:
- Jeunghun Wang
- Victor Dubuisson
- Renato Paratore
- Joakim Lagergren
- Hao-Tong Li
- Soomin Lee
Here are players who have multiple top 15s in the last five European Tour (specific) events who are playing at least $500 below their average salary this week:
- Bernd Wiesberger
- David Lipsky
- Henrik Stenson
- Mikko Ilonen
- Tyrrell Hatton