Welcome back to Golf News Net's weekly fantasy golf picks. Each week of the European Tour season, we'll present our top picks for that week's tournament and make recommendations for DraftKings' one-week fantasy leagues.
The European Tour heads South Africa for the second of the three-event Final Series, with the Nedbank Golf Challenge expanding to 72 players and a big payday for many at Gary Player Country Club in Sun City. Some of the top players in the standings didn't make the trip from Turkey (or elsewhere), but Henrik Stenson headlines the field.
Each week, we'll provide our top 10 picks and analysis, with our GNN Plus subscribers getting access to our full top-10 picks, our searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present, our top-15 finish chart and season-long trends on DraftKings valuations. They'll be available at your disposal as part of a growing set of tools to help in your research.
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2016 Nedbank Golf Challenge top 10 fantasy golf picks
1. Alex Noren -- Still the class of the field, and he got a week of rest.
2. Henrik Stenson -- Stenson has been in the top five here twice in the last three years. Should be ready to rock.
3. Thongchai Jaidee -- The French Open winner is a horse-for-course pick this week. Been in the top 15 all three years this has been a Euro Tour event.
4. Ross Fisher -- Fisher is a hot golfer on the European Tour and also a great player in Sun City. A little overvalued this week.
5. Charl Schwartzel -- Schwartzel is a mainstay contender in this event, and he does most of his damage in his home country.
6. Louis Oosthuizen -- Oosthuizen isn't quite the home-country dominator Schwartzel is, but he's a very solid pick here.
7. David Horsey -- Horsey was the joint runner-up last week in Turkey. He's been in the top 15 in three of the last five Euro Tour events. He'd be higher were it not for the S.A. guys.
8. Thorbjorn Olesen -- Last week's winner isn't the most consistent player in the world, but he's riding a hot streak, so how can you not look at him?
9. David Lipsky -- The American is a brilliant putter and a great ballstiker. A top-10 in Turkey continues a run of solid finishes the last 75 days.
10. Danny Willett -- Willett is miserable out there. However, for a second tournament in a row, he's coming to a place where he has multiple top-15s in the last three years. Maybe it works out this week.
My DraftKings team for this week:
1. Ross Fisher - $9,300
2. Louis Oosthuizen - $8,800
3. Thongchai Jaidee - $8,500
4. David Horsey - $8,200
5. Marc Warren - $7,500
6. Thorbjorn Olesen - $7,400
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five European Tour events. Here are the players in this week's field with the most top-15 finishes in the last five European Tour events:
- Alex Noren - 3 - T-11 Dunhill Links, WIN British Masters, T-12 WGC-HSBC Champions
- David Horsey - 3 - T-11 Dunhill Links, T-12 British Masters, T-2 Turkish Airlines Open
- David Lipsky - 2 - T-5 Portgual Masters, T-6 Turkish Airlines Open
- Marc Warren - 2 - 5th Dunhill Links, T-12 Portugal Masters
- Mikko Ilonen - 2 - T-12 British Masters, T-10 Turkish Airlines Open
- Richard Sterne - 2 - T-2 Dunhill Links, T-9 British Masters
- Ross Fisher - 2 - T-2 Dunhill Links, T-6 HSBC Champions
- Tyrrell Hatton - 3 - WIN British Masters, T-9 British Masters, T-10 Turkish Airlines Open
We also want to look at players who have a good history in this tournament. However, since the tournament had, until this year, been a hyper-limited-field event. So top-15-ing the Nedbank really wasn't a big deal. Nonetheless, let's look at top-15s since 2013, when the field was expanded:
- Ross Fisher - 2
- Thongchai Jaidee - 3
- Louis Oosthuizen - 3
- Charl Schwartzel - 3
- Henrik Stenson - 2
- Danny Willett - 2
Ideally, we want to find players who are both playing well now and have a history of playing well at this championship. Our guys: Ross Fisher
DraftKings salaries change from week to week, depending on field strength and size, as well a player's recent record and their history on a course. It's in looking at how a salary changes over time that we might get some clues as to players that could be a little overrated or underrated.
We're looking here at the players who are salaried at $500 or more than their season average in a somewhat weak, undervalued field:
- Chris Paisley
- Ross Fisher
- Joakim Lagergren
- Jorge Campillo
- Ricardo Gouveia
- Mikko Ilonen
- David Horsey
- Nacho Elvira
- Matthew Southgate
Here are players who have multiple top 15s in the last five European Tour (specific) events who are playing at least $500 below their average salary this week:
- Richard Sterne
- Tyrrell Hatton