Welcome back to Golf News Net’s weekly fantasy golf picks. Each week of the European Tour season, we’ll present our top picks for that week’s tournament and make recommendations for DraftKings’ one-week fantasy leagues.
The European Tour heads to Turkey for the start of the three-event Final Series, with the 78-player Turkish Airlines Open kicking off things. Victor Dubuisson is the saddest man in the field, as the two-time winner of the three-year-old event will have to defend at a new venue in Antalya, the Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort.
Each week, we’ll provide our top 10 picks and analysis, with our GNN Plus subscribers getting access to our full top-10 picks, our searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present, our top-15 finish chart and season-long trends on DraftKings valuations. They’ll be available at your disposal as part of a growing set of tools to help in your research.
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2016 Turkish Airlines Open top 10 fantasy golf picks
1. Bernd Wiesberger — Wiesberger is the most consistent player in the field this week. He’s still outclassed in WGCs, but not in a field like this one.
2. Tommy Fleetwood — Fleetwood is probably the second most consistent player in the field the last eight weeks. He’s been a top-15 rock, and he finds a lot of greens.
3. Danny Willett — Willett is playing pretty well overall, but he’s always hit and miss. That said, he likes playing in Turkey. The change in venue is a consideration.
4. Tyrrell Hatton — The Brit has been enjoying a breakout season, and he’s still flying high from the Dunhill Links win.
5. Padraig Harrington — Harrington won in Portgual, and, while the Irishman isn’t the strongest after a win, he’s got some serious momentum in a weak field.
6. Lee Westwood — In a weak field, even an inconsistent Westwood is a top-tier player. He was 29th at the HSBC Champions, but third at the British Masters. A pair of top-15s here at Monty’s track.
7. Richard Bland — The 43-year-old Brit has been great in the last two months, and there’s little reason to believe that’s about to change as the Final Series starts.
8. Richard Sterne — Sterne has been the better of the Richards of late, but they’re pretty much interchangeable this week.
9. Marc Warren — Warren made a key late-season push to keep his European Tour status, and he’s continued playing well at the Portugal Masters.
10. Victor Dubuisson — This is merely a hunch. The Frenchman has played sad-sack golf of late, but he’s a two-time winner in Turkey, and that deserves a thought.
My DraftKings team for this week:
1. Tommy Fleetwood – $10,300
2. Richard Sterne – $8,500
3. Padraig Harrington – $8,400
4. David Horsey – $8,000
5. Mike Lorenzo-Vera – $6,800
6. Adrain Otaegui – $6,100
We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five European Tour events. Here are the players in this week’s field with the most top-15 finishes in the last five European Tour events:
- Bernd Wiesberger – 3 – 5th European Open, T-7 Dunhill Links Championship, 2nd British Masters
- David Horsey – 2 – T-11 Dunhill Links Championship, T-12 British Masters
- Marc Warren – 2 – 5th Dunhill Links Championship, T-12 Portugal Masters
- Richard Bland – 2 – T-7 European Open, T-4 British Masters
- Richard Sterne – 2 – T-2 Dunhill Links Championship, T-9 British Masters
- Tommy Fleetwood – 3 – T-13 European Open, T-15 Dunhill Links Championship, T-4 British Masters
- Tyrrell Hatton – 2 – WIN Dunhill Links Championship, T-9 British Masters
We also want to look at players who have a good history in this tournament. However, since the tournament is at a new venue this year, we only have history from the first two years at the original Colin Montgomerie-designed venue:
- Victor Dubuisson – 2
- Lee Westwood – 2
- Danny Willett – 2
Ideally, we want to find players who are both playing well now and have a history of playing well at this championship. Our guys: NONE
DraftKings salaries change from week to week, depending on field strength and size, as well a player’s recent record and their history on a course. It’s in looking at how a salary changes over time that we might get some clues as to players that could be a little overrated or underrated.
We’re looking here at the players who are salaried at $1,000 or more than their season average:
- Bernd Wiesberger
- Richard Bland
- Chris Paisley
- Padraig Harrington
- Andy Sullivan
- Marc Warren
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat
- Alexander Levy
- Joakim Lagergren
- Tommy Fleetwood
Here are players who have multiple top 15s in the last five European Tour (specific) events who are playing less than $500 above their average salary this week:
We have none this week. In a weak field, the top-heavy players are overvalued.