2016 BMW Championship fantasy golf picks, betting tips
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2016 BMW Championship fantasy golf picks, betting tips

Welcome back to Golf News Net’s weekly fantasy golf picks. Each week of the PGA Tour season, we’ll present our top picks for that week’s tournament and make recommendations for DraftKings’ one-week fantasy leagues.

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Rory McIlroy was on our radar last week at the Deutsche Bank, but his putting woes kept us from elevating him into our top 10. Then he had his best putting week of the last two seasons and won the second playoff event for the second time in his career. Now, the top 70 players head to Crooked Stick for the first BMW Championship there since 2012.

For GNN Plus subscribers, you can access our NEW searchable database of PGA Tour results from 2011-present, our top-15 finish chart and season-long trends on DraftKings valuations. They’ll be available at your disposal as part of a growing set of tools to help in your research.

2016 BMW Championship top 10 picks

1. Jason Day — Day struggled with his driver at the Deutsche Bank, so that’s something to keep in mind for the BMW, but he’s still been very consistent through the season.

2. Dustin Johnson — Crooked Stick seems like a course that tends to reward power. That would be up D.J.’s alley. Two finishes outside the top 10 since the start of June.

3. Rory McIlroy — If Rory McIlroy is going to putt like he did at TPC Boston (or even close to it), then he can be a threat. He’s streaky, but he’s returning to a place where he won in 2012.

4. Patrick Reed — Reed is remarkably consistent this year, and he’s been on firm footing dating back to the final two majors of the year. Worth a look again this week.

5. Jordan Spieth — Spieth is just a little off each week. There’s just a little something that’s wrong. However, he’s good enough to pop top 20s out of an off week.

6. Ryan Moore — Moore has been on a tear of late, with top-eight finishes in both playoff events. He’s doing well.

7. Adam Scott — Somewhat quietly, Adam Scott has been playing well in the first two playoff events. At the right price, he’s worth a look.

8. Zach Johnson — Yeah, yeah, Zach Johnson has played blah golf in the playoffs. However, he’s got three top-15 finishes in this event in the last five years. He likes this particular part of the schedule.

9. Gary Woodland — Typically, we’re averse to Gary Woodland. Just too many variables with his short game. However, he’s playing well in the playoffs and has the length for Crooked Stick.

10. Jason Kokrak — Kokrak may well be a long-shot to win this week at Crooked Stick, but he’s stepped up his game in the playoffs and he might be at the right price.

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My DraftKings team for this week:

We await DraftKings salaries.

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If you want to win at DraftKings daily fantasy golf, you have to figure out a way to find six golfers that play all 72 holes and earn roughly 85 points each.

You likely have to identify a couple of players in the top five, at least the top seven, and you’d ideally not have a player finish outside the top 20.

Doing that takes research, looking at a variety of factors, including:

  • Finish trends, both in recent weeks on the PGA Tour and at that week’s event,
  • Salary trends, deciphering which players are showing value based on their performance, and
  • Statistical trends, identifying the common threads among winners in that week’s event

That’s what Golf News Net will deliver each week to GNN Plus members in this space, offering a complete research package which dives into these three areas to find the players that should be in your lineup for this week.

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Finish Trends

We start by looking at the recent past, back at players who have finished inside the top 15 in the last five PGA Tour events — not their last five starts. Here are the players in this week’s field with the most top-15 finishes in the last five non-Olympic PGA Tour events:

  • Adam Scott – 2 – T-4 The Barclays, T-4 Deutsche Bank Championship
  • Billy Horschel – 2 – T-5 Wyndham Championship, T-13 The Barclays
  • Gary Woodland – 2 – T-4 The Barclays, T-15 Deutsche Bank Championship
  • Hideki Matsuyama – 2 – 3rd Wyndham Championship, T-15 Deutsche Bank Championship
  • Jason Day – 2 – T-4 The Barclays, T-15 Deutsche Bank Championship
  • Jason Kokrak – 2 – T-7 The Barclays, T-8 Deutsche Bank Championship
  • Justin Thomas – 2 – T-3 Travelers Championship, T-10 The Barclays
  • Kevin Na – 2 – T-8 John Deere Classic, T-10 Wyndham Championship
  • Patrick Reed – 3 – T-11 Travelers Championship, WIN The Barclays, T-5 Deutsche Bank Championship
  • Russell Knox – 2 – WIN Travelers Championship, T-15 Deutsche Bank Championship
  • Ryan Moore – 3 – WIN John Deere Classic, T-7 The Barclays, T-8 Deutsche Bank Championship
  • Si Woo Kim – 2 – WIN Wyndham Championship, T-15 Deutsche Bank Championship

We’re also interested in the players in the field that have finished in the top 15 at the BMW Championship multiple times in the last five years:

  • Adam Scott – 2
  • Bubba Watson – 3
  • Charl Schwarzel – 2
  • Dustin Johnson – 2
  • J.B. Holmes – 2
  • Jordan Spieth – 2
  • Justin Rose – 2
  • Luke Donald – 2
  • Rickie Fowler – 2
  • Rory McIlroy – 3
  • Ryan Moore – 2
  • Sergio Garcia – 2
  • Zach Johnson – 3

Ideally, we want to find players who are both playing well now and have a history of playing well in this championship. Adam Scott and Ryan Moore are our guys this week.

Since the BMW Championship venue changes from year to year, let’s look at players in the field this week who finished in the top 20 at Crooked Stick in 2012.

1. Rory McIlroy
T-2. Phil Mickelson
T-6. Dustin Johnson
T-6. Adam Scott
T-10. Ryan Moore
T-12. Bubba Watson
T-12. Chris Kirk
T-12. Zach Johnson
T-16. Justin Rose
T-16. Louis Oosthuizen

Salary Trends

DraftKings salaries change from week to week, depending on field strength and size, as well a player’s recent record and their history on a course. It’s in looking at how a salary changes over time that we might get some clues as to players that could be a little overrated or underrated.

Here’s the list of players in the field playing $500 over their average salary this season in what is an undervalued field:

  • Hudson Swafford
  • Ryan Moore
  • Jhonattan Vegas
  • Emiliano Grillo
  • Si Woo Kim
  • Billy Hurley III
  • Harris English
  • Sung Kang

Here are the players with multiple top 15 finishes in their last five events that are playing this week at least $1,000 BELOW their average salary this season.

  • Justin Thomas – $1,326 BELOW
  • Kevin Na – $1,735 BELOW

Statistical Trends

Crooked Stick is a course that seemingly responds best to bombers who perform well from tee-to-green. Good driving sets up everything at this Pete Dye course, so we’ll start with strokes gained tee-to-green.

1. Adam Scott
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Dustin Johnson
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Bubba Watson
7. Rickie Fowler
8. Charl Schwartzel
9. Justin Rose
10. Sergio Garcia
11. Kevin Chappell
12. Webb Simpson
13. Gary Woodland
14. Paul Casey
16. Jason Day
17. Jason Dufner
18. Jordan Spieth
19. Matt Kuchar
20. Louis Oosthuizen

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