The Masters hangover is real, and after a week that favored the short knockers at RBC Heritage, the PGA Tour heads back to Texas for the Valero Texas Open held at TPC San Antonio’s AT&T Oaks course. This week we also have one of the weakest fields that we’ll see all season long, with Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar, Adam Scott, Charley Hoffman and red-hot Luke List the class of the field.
TPC San Antonio is a fairly long, 7,400-yard, par-72 layout that typically falls within the top-10 most difficult courses on tour. The length of the course is a major factor but TPC San Antonio is also set up to play firm and fast, which brings some of the shorter hitters into play as long as they are able to keep it away from the tree lined rough and numerous native areas that are found off the fairway. I typically want to target par-5 scoring on a par-72 layout but the par 5s here are all difficult and rank towards the bottom in terms of both birdie and eagle rate. This leads me to weight par-4 scoring more heavily than I typically would this week. While length will certainly be important, the driving statistic that I’ll be looking at is total driving. There’s enough trouble found off the tee that accuracy still plays a role so it would be wise to target guys who are both long and accurate with the big stick.
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Up at the top, Sergio is the clear best option but at $12,000, rostering Sergio will force you to dip into the low $7,000 and under range, which is a complete wasteland this week. I won’t try to talk anyone off of playing Garcia, but I’m going to take my chances dropping down to Charley Hoffman at the top and praying that Sergio doesn’t blitz the field with his excellent ball striking.
Finally, wind is always a major factor at this event and you need to check on the weather before lineups lock on Thursday morning. We’ve seen entire tee time waves wiped out because of heavy winds and there could a serious edge one way or another if we get reports of heavy winds impacting one of the tee time draws.
Key Stats
- Ball striking
- Total Driving
- Par 4 Scoring
- Wind Play
- Bermuda Putting
Players to Target
$12,000-$9,000 Range
- Sergio Garcia - $12,000
- Charley Hoffman - $10,900
- Adam Scott - $9,600
- Kevin Chappell - $9,300
$9,000-$8,000 Range
- Pat Perez - $8,400
- Ryan Palmer - $8,300
- Jimmy Walker - $8,200
- Beau Hossler - $8,100
$8,000-$7,000 Range
- J.B. Holmes - $7,800
- Jamie Lovemark - $7,700
- Julian Suri - $7,600
- Scott Piercy - $7,400
- Grayson Murray - $7,300
- Aaron Baddeley - $7,300
Punt Plays
- Matt Jones - $7,200
- Kevin Tway - $7,000
- Abraham Ancer - $6,900
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